Best 2022 NFL Futures Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 5)

We now enter Week 5 of the NFL season, and teams are starting to sort themselves out. We now have a decent idea of the good, the bad, and the ugly regarding NFL teams. I’ve got two bets this week, one involving a quarterback who has pleasantly surprised and one against a team that has looked like an absolute disaster.

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Seattle Seahawks over 5.5 wins (-110)

As Geno Smith said himself, “They wrote me off. I ain’t write back, though.” I was one of the majority of people who had written off Geno Smith as a starting NFL quarterback. I expected Drew Lock to win the starting quarterback job, and I thought the Seahawks’ win total this year could be counted on one hand.

That has not been the case. Geno Smith has been a genuinely good quarterback. He ranks first (!!!) in PFF grade and completion percentage over expected. He also ranks 5th in EPA/play, 4th in yards per attempt, and 3rd in passer rating. Geno has balled out.

Through four games, the Seahawks have played two of the best defenses in the league (Broncos, 49ers) and two of the worst (Falcons, Lions). Smith took advantage of those putrid defenses posting 0.2 EPA/play (this is good) against the Falcons, and an absurdly high 0.65 EPA/play against the Lions. The worry with this four-game sample is that Geno can take advantage of bad defenses, but Smith and the Seahawks will struggle against good teams.

Smith posted a 0.26 EPA/play in the Week 1 victory over the Broncos but had a -0.2 EPA/play against the 49ers. That Week 2 loss to San Francisco is the concern with this Seahawks team. The 49ers walked them up and down the field on offense and shut them down on defense. However, the 49ers have been the best defense in the league this season, so them shutting down the Seahawks wasn’t just a Seahawks thing. While the market, and I, expected the Seahawks’ offense to be one of the worst in the league, it’s not.

Looking forward to this Seahawks schedule is encouraging. Eight of their remaining 12 games come against teams that rank in the league’s bottom half in EPA/allowed. These are the teams that Seattle can beat. Average to mediocre defenses that Seattle offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, can scheme around are beatable for this Seahawks team. Like Garoppolo with Shanahan, Stafford with McVay, and Cousins with O’Connell, Geno Smith has become the robot-type, “make the read and throw the ball to the right spot” quarterback that these wide zones, play action, Shanahan-style offenses love.

He’s also got some arm talent to make plays downfield as well. Is it possible that Geno has even been an upgrade over Russell Wilson? Pete Carroll may seem to think so with his comments saying, “We don’t have any hesitation. We’re not reluctant to call any play, any pass, any action, and he’s really freewheeling now. And they’ve got guys to go to. We have a whole array of guys we can use. And that just makes us really multiple. Shane’s got a great creative mind, and this is now to the point where we can be the most open we’ve been in the time I can remember.”

When you have two great receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, a stable of solid tight ends, two exciting playmakers in the backfield, and a creative play caller, all you need is a quarterback who will make the read and deliver the ball accurately. That is Geno Smith’s calling card. In Steven Ruiz’s QB rankings at the Ringer, he’s moved Smith up to 17th in the league. I’m slower to move off my priors, but I’ve had to upgrade Smith to an average NFL starter, and I now have the Seahawks as the 20th-best offense in the league. Even accounting for them having one of the worst defenses in the league, I still project the Seahawks for 6.6 wins this season.

I’m not saying the Geno Smith we saw at West Virginia is back, but Seattle is working with at least a competent starter and a decent offense. This isn’t something I saw coming this season, and I don’t think the market has fully adjusted to it either. That makes the Seahawks over 5.5 wins at -110 a good bet in my eyes.

Indianapolis Colts to miss playoffs (-135)

Yes, the Colts beat the Chiefs, but I don’t think this team has yet to play an encouraging four quarters of football. It was a miracle they beat that Chiefs team as well. Kansas City had a higher success rate, higher EPA/play, more total yards, more yards per play, more first downs, and had a greater than 50% win probability for over 95% of that game. This Colts team should be 0-4, and there is nothing to be encouraged about going forward.

The thesis for this team was that Matt Ryan wouldn’t make the silly mistakes that Carson Wentz made. He would keep the offense on schedule and hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor to run behind a great offensive line, the defense would be solid, and the Colts would win 10 games, win the division, and then make a first-round exit in the playoffs. Sounds great, right?

Well, Matt Ryan has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays, is second in interceptions, has been sacked 15 times (5th in the league), and leads the league with nine fumbles in four games. He’s been worse than Carson Wentz.

The run game has sucked as well. I was told that Jonathan Taylor (a running back) was an MVP candidate and the most important player on this Colts team. Just like every argument in recent NFL history in favor of running backs being valuable, it faltered, and Taylor now ranks 40th out of 55 running backs in PFF grade, is 34th in yards per carry, and will now miss one or two games with an ankle injury.

It’s not Taylor’s fault the Colts’ running game is bad. Aside from a few special backs in the league, running backs are mostly a product of their environment. I’d still consider him one of the best backs in the NFL, but his offensive line is terrible, and defenses aren’t going to give a s**t about your passing game if it consists of 37-year-old Matt Ryan throwing to Michael Pittman and a bunch of nobodies. As a result, the Colts rank 28th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing success rate after ranking 1st and 8th in those respective categories last year.

So we know the offense is not good. As for the defense, it’s fine. The secondary is weak, but this will always be at least an average defense with the front seven the Colts boast. That front seven is the biggest strength this team has, but it’s not going to be enough to drag it to the playoffs.

The Colts are currently 1-2-1, and that record might be overselling this team a bit. Maybe they can figure things out on offense and scrape together enough wins to win the AFC South, but I don’t see it happening. Their next three games come against a Denver team whose defense will eat them alive, a Jacksonville team that already did so, and Tennessee, who just handled the Colts in Indianapolis.

There is a good chance this team is 1-5-1 three weeks from now and looking up at a daunting conference from the AFC cellar. I project the Colts to finish with 7.3 wins, 1.3 out of a wild card spot, and 1.3 behind Jackonville for the AFC South title. This team has no speed, no explosiveness, no offense, and the recurring theme for these Colts teams since Andrew Luck retired is that they have no direction. With how bad this team is, 2022 might be the year they pack it in and change the course of this franchise. Indianapolis is not a team I see capable of making the playoffs, and a top 10 pick in the NFL draft might be a more likely outcome.

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