Best 2022 NFL Futures Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 6)
Sadly, we are now through five weeks of the NFL season, over a quarter of the way done. Teams are starting to figure out where they stand, and with that, we can start to assess which futures bets are winners and losers so far.
Eight of the ten futures bets I’ve written up in this weekly series are now at shorter odds. That means these bets are trending toward being winners. Of those seven, the best bets so far have been: Eagles to win the NFC East (+150, now -325), Chiefs to lead the league in scoring (+1000, currently 1st), Broncos under 9.5 wins (-120, now 7.5 wins at -125), and Chiefs to win the AFC West (-120, now -250). The two “losers†we have so far are the Rams to win the NFC West (+115, now +225) and the Colts to miss the playoffs (-135, now -115), but both of those are still very much alive.
Futures markets will get tougher to beat as the season continues, so I’ve only got one bet I like this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win NFC (+460)
I think the NFC is a two-horse race this season. San Francisco has an elite defense, but Jimmy G and a weaker offensive line will hold them back. Minnesota’s offense is humming, but the defense is awful. Green Bay and Los Angeles have been huge disappointments this season, and they look like they have problems that may not be fixable this season. That leaves two teams vying for the NFC throne: the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Eagles have been the story of the NFL season thus far, and rightfully so. I loved this team entering the season and am heavily invested in them in the futures market. They should be the favorite to win the conference, and they are, but Tampa Bay is mispriced at +450, and these odds will shorten quickly.
The Buccaneers have stumbled out of the gate, but I think this can be excused. There was the strange absence of Tom Brady in training camp, multiple injuries on the offensive line, and multiple games where they had at least one or two of their key receivers out. Let’s not forget that this is a team with a new head coach as well. Despite all of these early-season obstacles, this team is still 4-1 and locked into a playoff spot and NFC South crown.
Tampa’s defense has been outstanding. The unit ranks 4th in EPA/play allowed, 3rd in DVOA, and 8th in PFF defense grade. Todd Bowles’s defense looks better than the unit that won them a Super Bowl two years ago. We saw this team give Jalen Hurts issues last postseason. They held Aaron Rodgers to 14 points and will be a nightmare for Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins to face. It’s a unit that can support a deep playoff run.
While the saying “defense wins championships†is as old as time, it’s not true. You need an elite offense to win the Super Bowl. Thankfully, this team has Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Tristan Wirfs. I wouldn’t say the offense has struggled thus far, as this is still a unit that ranks 19th in EPA/play, 12th in success rate, 13th in DVOA, and 12th in PFF offense grade. That’s a fine offense, but far from the one we expected to see this season. How this team reaches its elite potential rides on offensive line improvement and the health of their receivers.
Tristan Wirfs is an elite tackle, Donovan Smith is good on the other side as well, and Shaq Mason has been good since Tampa stole him from the Patriots. The other two interior spots are the issue here. We’ve already seen second-year center Robert Hainsey take noticeable steps toward becoming a solid player. The biggest liability, rookie guard Luke Goedeke, is just five games into his rookie season and transitioning from playing tackle in college. Those spots, and the line as a whole, should only get better, considering how important continuity is for offensive lines and how tough it is for young players to succeed early. Those players will take time to develop, and the line will take time to gel. Playing with Tom Brady puts you in a great position to do that, as he’s been top-five in time to throw over the past three seasons, and it’s hard to find a better quarterback at identifying defenses and calling protections.
As for the receivers, it’s tough to count on Julio Jones’s health, but he should be on the field for at least a handful of games this year and will make an impact when he does. Mike Evans is healthy and unsuspended, and Chris Godwin will get further from his ACL tear and hamstring injury as the season goes along. The tight ends are bad, but at least they’ve got depth there with three bad tight ends. Maybe Cade Otton can break out? Anyways, I don’t think that matters with the talent and depth the wide receiver room possesses. Tampa also has two great pass-catching backs in Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White, who Brady targets heavily.
This team should get healthy, they should improve, and as we’ve seen with pretty much every football team Tom Brady has led in his career, they should be making a deep playoff run. With the way this Bucs team is constructed, I sure as hell want that Tampa Bay NFC Champion +450 ticket in my pocket as I’m sitting on the couch in late January. Tampa will be touchdown favorites in their next two games and will be favored in at least 11 of their 12 remaining games (San Francisco is the only one they probably won’t be favored in, but I have them as 0.2-point favorites in that game). This team will flex its offensive strength, punish teams with its defense, and be a dangerous team with a high seed heading into the playoffs. This is a weak conference, and these odds will shorten, so get yourself some Buccaneers to win the NFC at these odds.
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