Matthew Freedman’s Best 2022 NFL Season-Long Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Matthew Freedman |
Aug 26, 2022

I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.

In this piece, you'll find my favorite season-long player props across the four position groups. For more, check out my other pieces on season-long props.

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Some notes on my projections and process:

I recommend betting unders in the season-long prop market, not overs. In other words, don't bet a whole bunch of overs just because my projections point in that direction. That would be a bad idea. I touch more on unders vs. overs in my overall guide to betting 2022 NFL season-long player props.
My projections are not the official BettingPros or FantasyPros projections, which are entirely independent from mine. These are just my pseudo-random projections. For the official BettingPros projections, see our season-long prop bet cheat sheet, which compares our projections with the current lines in the market to highlight the props that offer the most value. It's a great tool. For the official FantasyPros projections, check out our season-long consensus projections page, which provides statistical forecasts for almost every skill-position player in the league.
My projections are solely to help me - and now you - navigate the season-long prop market. That's it. I wouldn't use them for making draft decisions in fantasy football, where it makes more sense to focus on upside than median outcome. For the prop market, though, the median is what matters most.
With the prop market in mind, I know that I don't need these projections to be perfect, so I haven't tried to make them perfect. I just need them to be good enough to be directionally correct. In other words, I won't be obsessively updating these projections every day.
The season-long prop market is not overwhelmingly robust. You can find hundreds of wagers to make, but very few of them are for players who aren't relevant in fantasy. You won't find props for No. 2 quarterbacks, most No. 2 running backs, many Nos. 2-3 wide receivers and even some No. 1 tight ends. As a result, I don't care much about being accurate with those players. I'm not ignoring their projections, but I'm also not investing extra time into working out the nuances of their projections. That would be a -EV (expected value) use of my time, especially since I can't bet into any market to profit from my work.

Ryan Tannehill Under 3,600.5 Yards Passing

Projection: 3,372.3 yards
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date & Time: Sunday, August 21, 2 p.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: The Titans have a tough schedule - that's what happens when you're the No. 1 seed in the playoffs - and I project them to go under their win total of 9.5. The Titans can get out of Tannehill's contract next offseason with relatively little pain, and they just third-round playmaker Malik Willis in the draft. I doubt Tannehill makes it through the entire season - and the Titans are likely to have a run-heavy offense anyway.

Lamar Jackson Under 6.5 Touchdowns Rushing

Projection: 5.4 touchdowns
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Date & Time: Sunday, August 21, 2 p.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: Playing in the final year of his contract, Jackson (I suspect) will be a little more cautious running the ball, which could result in fewer scores on the ground.

Elijah Mitchell Under 924.5 Yards Rushing

Projection: 870.4 yards
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: Throughout the entirety of his tenure in San Francisco, HC Kyle Shanahan has never had the name No. 1 back two years in a row - and Mitchell (hamstring), who battled an assortment of nicks last year, is already dealing with a soft-tissue injury heading into the season. Mitchell is one of my 2022 fantasy players to avoid.

Austin Ekeler Under 8.5 Touchdowns Rushing

Projection: 7.7 touchdowns
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: Last year, Ekeler scored 12 touchdowns on the ground. In his four NFL seasons before that, Ekeler never had more than three. Ekeler is almost certain to have fewer than the career-high 206 carries he had last year, and with that decline in usage a diminishment in scoring opportunities should come. This is one of my favorite bets of the year.

Treylon Burks Under 57.5 Receptions

Projection: 51.3 receptions
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: In Week 2 of the preseason, Burks (5 snaps) played in a first-team five-man positional rotation with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (6), Racey McMath (6), Cody Hollister (5) and Kyle Philips (4). He can barely earn snaps, let alone targets.

Skyy Moore Under 680.5 Yards Receiving

Projection: 658.6 yards
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: To this point in the preseason, Moore has been behind WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson. I imagine that he will eventually overtake Hardman and Watson - he has the talent to do it - but that might not happen early enough in the season for him to hit the over.

Noah Fant Under 57.5 Receptions

Projection: 54.3 receptions
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: As I note in my positional battle breakdown, Fant in Week 2 played on just 15 of QB Geno Smith's 29 snaps and ran a route on just 10 of his 20 dropbacks. Fant is not a full-time player.

Albert Okwuegbunam Under 525.5 Yards Receiving

Projection: 451.4 yards
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
Units: 1.15
Notes: Okwuegbunam's preseason usage has been concerning. While all the starters have rested, Okwuegbunam has played - and he hasn't even dominated. In Week 1, he and TE Eric Tomlinson both played eight first-team snaps, and Okwuegbunam played all the way to halftime. In Week 2, he ran a route on 80% of the first-team dropbacks, which was encouraging, but he still played on just 10 of 19 first-team snaps, and he played into the fourth quarter. We have no idea what rookie Greg Dulcich's usage will look like in the regular season, but Okwuegbunam doesn't look like a "real" starter.

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Matthew Freedman’s Best 2022 NFL Season-Long Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

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