Best 2025 NCAA Tournament Bets: Round 2 (Saturday)

Image of author by |

The Madness continues Saturday as we head into Round 2 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! With plenty of college basketball on tap Saturday, here are a few of our best bets for Round 2 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

March Madness Pick'Em Contest

2025 Men's NCAA Tournament Best Bets: Round 2

No. 12 McNeese Cowboys vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5) | O/U 143.5 (-105/-115)

Some thought Purdue was on upset watch in the first round against High Point (myself included). Well, the Boilermakers answered the bell with a 12-point victory. The game was close at times but Matt Painter's squad survived and advanced. They're now gifted with a Round of 32 matchup against No. 12 seed McNeese, who upset Clemson on Thursday. 

McNeese's first-round win was certainly impressive, but it also deserves some context. The Clemson offense struggled mightly with only 13 first-half points. The Tigers also shot just 44.4% from the field for the full game. Their short-handed backcourt with Dillon Hunter sidelined was also factored in. 

Some of those offensive issues can certainly be attributed to McNeese's defense. Still, a better shooting performance and a better offensive team would've beaten the Cowboys. They also blew a large second-half lead to barely hang on for a two-point win. 

Purdue can silence the doubters again behind its uber-efficient offense. The Boilermakers rank sixth in the country in offensive efficiency while shooting 38.3% from three-point range (11th). That perimeter offense can shine through against a McNeese defense that allows the 12th-highest rate of opposing three-point scoring in college basketball. Plus, Purdue big man Trey Kaufman-Renn is a problem inside. 

The way to beat Purdue is inside against its terrible interior defense. Yet, McNeese doesn’t have the post scorers or bigs to exploit that weakness. The Cowboys were hot from three in conference play, but that perimeter scoring won’t come as easy against Purdue. The Boilermakers are holding teams to 30.9% from beyond the arc this season (34th)

A few trends point towards Purdue winning and covering the spread. No. 4 seeds are on a 20-12 against the spread/ATS (62.5%) run in the second round. Plus, since 2014, No. 4-6 seeds are 19-1 straight up (SU) and 17-3 ATS (85%) in the second round when not playing another seed in that range. Finally, second-round favorites in the -5.5 to -6.5 line range are 50-12 SU and 42-20 ATS (67.7%) since 1998.

Purdue survives another upset bid to move on to the Sweet 16. McNeese has been a great story, but Will Wade’s squad won’t have enough to continue the run and match the Boilermakers’ offense in this matchup.

Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-105)

No. 2 St. John's Red Storm (-6.5) vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (+245) | O/U 143.5

The last No. 10 seed to advance after beating a No. 2 seed was Miami back in 2022 when the Hurricanes defeated the No. 2 Auburn Tigers 79-61. Could Arkansas be next?

This game is between two legendary coaches, Rick Pitino (St. John's) and John Calipari (Arkansas). So, you know they will be prepared. I wouldn't expect there to be an advantage for St. John's just because they are the higher seed.

The difference between their offensive and defensive production (on the scoreboard) is minimal, just a few points. However, St. John's does have a significant edge regarding rebounding: No. 4 offensive rebound (14.49 per game) and No. 49 defensive rebound (26.54 per game). Arkansas does a decent job on the offensive glass (No. 74, 25.97 per game) but not so much on the defensive end (No. 274, 9.29 per game).

St. John's can sometimes struggle to make shots. At 45.1% from the floor, they aren't terrible, but they are bad from three-point range (30.8%). Arkansas isn't exactly a team of sharpshooters, but they are better (46.5% from the floor and 33% three-point range).

This is going to be a great game between two excellent teams coached by legends. As for an outright winner, I'd lean towards St. John's because they seem to be a little better in a few key metrics. But not so much so that the Red Storm wins by more than seven points.

Arkansas will keep this one close.

Pick: Arkansas +6.5 (-102)

No. 11 Drake Bulldogs (+240) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5) | O/U 126.5

No. 11 seeds have been somewhat successful in recent years, and not just in the second round. Last season saw a No. 11 seed make it to the Final Four (North Carolina State, where they lost to Purdue). Could Drake soon add to the lore? It will depend on who can do what they do best better than the other team.

Drake can score when they need to; they put up 80+ in wins over Miami and Vanderbilt during the regular season and 70+ vs. Kansas State. However, the Bulldogs are a defensive team at heart (No. 2 in points allowed, 58.4 per game).

Texas Tech will want to push the pace. They averaged 80.9 points per game (t-No. 28). But the Red Raiders aren't too shabby on the defensive end (67.7 points per game allowed, No. 55). Where Texas Tech could have an advantage is on the boards, especially offensive rebounding. They're tied for No. 47 in offensive rebounding rankings (12.46 per game).

Drake, however, is one of the worst in the nation, No. 337 overall (31 per game) and No. 350 in defensive rebounding (20.76 per game).

I'll be honest: Part of me wants to take the Drake Moneyline here. The Red Raiders threw up a record-breaking 46 three-point attempts against UNC-Wilmington, and the Seahawks played decent perimeter defense (33.2% three-pointers allowed).

There is no reason to think they will not do the same against Drake, even though the Bulldogs allow closer to 30% of three-point attempts. But it may be out of necessity because of Drake's suffocating defense. Whatever the reason, they will likely do as poorly as they did against UNC Wilmington (28.3%).

The under may not be a bad play. Texas Tech's defense is good enough to keep Drake’s mediocre offense from getting out of hand. I see Texas Tech struggling on offense as they did against UNC Wilmington at first. This time, though, they will not find a solution. They may still win, but not by more than eight points.

Pick: Drake +7.5 (-114)

No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars (-5.5) | O/U 140.5 (-110/-110)

This is one of the best second-round matchups we've ever gotten in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga will try to make its 10th straight Sweet 16 appearance while Houston has been to five Sweet 16s in a row. It's also a rare Round of 32 matchup between two top-10 KenPom teams. 

Gonzaga was under-seeded, according to its predictive and advanced metrics. The No. 8 seed Bulldogs proved it in their 89-68 first-round win over Georgia. Meanwhile, Houston made easy work of No. 16 seed SIU Edwardsville with a 78-40 victory on Thursday. 

This will be an intense game with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line for two of college basketball's top programs over the past decade. Let's take the under and bank on a low-scoring, defensive-focused battle. Every possession carries a ton of weight and both coaches will have their defenses prepared. 

Houston should set the tone defensively. The Cougars allow 57.9 points per game (first in Division I) and rank second nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has a top-10 offense in the sport, but it also hasn't faced many elite defenses this season. The Bulldogs were held to 58, 67 and 58 points in three matchups vs. Saint Mary's (seventh in defensive efficiency). They also scored just 62 against UCLA (15th) back in December. 

Gonzaga wants to get out and run on offense and score in transition. Houston will specifically look to slow things down and prevent fast-break points. The Cougars are 360th in tempo and have proven capable of slowing top-tier offenses in the Big 12. Texas Tech (61 points), BYU (54), Arizona (64 and 58) and Iowa State (59) have all struggled in the past month against Houston. 

Defensively, Houston is elite at shutting down the interior. It ranks fourth nationally in two-point defense and sixth in block rate. Well, Gonzaga relies heavily on its inside scoring. The Cougars have the bigs to bottle up Graham Ike in the paint. They also hold opponents to 30.6% three-point shooting (16th). 

On the other end, Gonzaga ranks 11th in three-point defense itself - allowing 29.8% shooting from deep. That's an issue for Houston, who shot 39.6% from three but ranks just 268th nationally in two-point offense. The Bulldogs can limit Houston offensively enough to stay within striking range. 

Pick: Under 140.5 Points (-110)