Best Bet for the World Series Game 1: Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

The 2021 World Series matchup is set after the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves each outlasted their opponents in six games in the LCS. The Astros have homefield advantage by way of their 95 wins to Atlanta’s 88 wins in the regular season. In addition, Houston is the much more experienced team, as this is their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons, while Atlanta returns for the first time since 1999. As such, sportsbooks have made the Astros anywhere from -145 to -160 moneyline favorites to win their second World Series championship in franchise history.

From a futures perspective, Caesars Sportsbook has huge liability on Houston given “Mattress Mack’s” roughly $3.35M in bets on Houston to win it all. His largest reported bet is $2M at 10-1 odds, and the $20M payout would be one of the largest ever at a U.S. sportsbook. On the other side, the Braves were once around 40-1 to take home the title in mid-July, as many wrote them off after Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending injury. However, they remained aggressive at the trade deadline, and those moves have paid off handsomely, especially Eddie Rosario, who was acquired from Cleveland and went on to win NLCS MVP.

Win or lose, the Braves have already made history this year. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Atlanta did not improve to over .500 until August 6th, making them the first team to reach the World Series in history despite not owning a winning record until that deep into the season. Will Atlanta’s historical ride pay off in a championship, or will the Astros prove to be the better team?

Here is my best bet for Tuesday’s Game 1 of the World Series. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

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YTD: 197-164-8 (+16.55 units) 

Atlanta Braves ML (+115)

Despite interleague play bringing together many regular season meetings between the National League and the American League, the Braves and Astros have not met since 2017. Atlanta’s 16 consecutive postseason appearances without a World Series championship is the longest streak in baseball. In contrast, the Astros are the second team to go to five consecutive American League Championship Series and the first team to make three World Series appearances in five years since the Yankees in the early 2000s.

The Astros come in with a ton of momentum both offensively and defensively, as in their Games 5 and 6 wins, Yordan Alvarez out-hit the Red Sox 7-5 by himself. Atlanta’s pitching staff will have their hands full with Houston’s lineup, who led the American League in batting average and had the best strikeout rate all season. In the opening, we touched on how vital Atlanta’s in-season acquisitions were. However, none may have been more critical than Houston acquiring Phil Maton and Kendall Graveman to serve as the bridge to closer Ryan Pressly. Thus, it will be necessary for the Braves to get ahead early and play with a lead.

That is precisely what we expect them to do in Game 1. There is an interesting storyline right out of the gate in the opener. Former Houston all-star Charlie Morton faces many of his old teammates he won a World Series with. Morton has been a model of consistency, winning at least 14 games and pitching to an ERA of 3.62 or lower in each of the last four full seasons. Though Framber Valdez had one of the most historic outings as a visitor in Fenway Park postseason history in his previous start, we like Morton’s experience to give Atlanta the edge.

The Braves are 14-3 in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record, and the Astros have lost each of their previous four World Series home games. Therefore, expect Atlanta to steal homefield advantage from Houston out of the gate.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.