Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Browns vs. Steelers (Week 12)
The Steelers were in one of the most anticipated matchups against the Ravens last week and won a typical AFC North, low-scoring slugfest. Theyâre in another AFC North battle against the Browns to open Week 12. Division matchups can be weird. However, the offensive tendencies for both teams are straightforward, and the most appealing player props lean into those tendencies.
Here are my best bets for Week 12âs Browns-Steelers matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 12 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Najee Harris Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-132 at BetRivers)
The Steelers are a ground-and-pound team with an offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who has a track record of feeding his running backs. According to RotoVizâs pace app, the Steelers are tied for the NFLâs fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%). Last week, they faced the Ravens. Baltimore has faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%) since Week 8, and the Steelers had a 50% situation-neutral rush rate. Not even Baltimoreâs pass-funnel defense could get the Steelers and Smith away from their run-first tendencies.
Najee Harris is the backfieldâs workhorse. Heâs handled 175 of Pittsburghâs backfieldâs 270 rush attempts (64.8%) this season. In the Steelersâ previous four games, Harris has handled 79 of the backfieldâs 127 rush attempts (62.2%). Harris has toted the rock 21, 19, 21 and 18 times in Russell Wilsonâs four starts. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites this week and should feed Harris over 16.5 rush attempts.
Nick Chubb Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
A positive game script for Harrisâ rushing outlook is negative for Nick Chubbâs. The underdog Browns will likely be in a negative game script, which doesnât bode well for Chubb to tote the rock much. In Chubbâs four games, heâs had 11, 16, 15 and 11 rush attempts. Chubb has averaged 13.3 rush attempts per game, with a median of 13.0. Heâs also gone under 14.5 rush attempts in two of Clevelandâs three losses in that four-game span.
The short turnaround might also prompt the Browns to take it easy on Chubb since this is his first year back from surgery for multiple ligament tears, including the ACL. Finally, Clevelandâs offensive tendencies arenât optimal for Chubbâs outlook for rush attempts, but thereâs more on that in the write-up for the next prop.
Jameis Winston Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jameis Winston has made up for time spent watching Deshaun Watson from the sideline by slinging it. In three starts this season, Winston has averaged 44.3 pass attempts per game, with a median of 46. Heâs chucked it 41, 46 and 46 times in his starts.
Winstonâs gunslinging has been a stylistic match with Kevin Stefanskiâs and Ken Dorseyâs play-calling philosophies. The Browns are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this season. Cleveland has kicked it up to a 64% situation-neutral pass rate in Winstonâs three starts, a similar move after Joe Flacco took over as the teamâs starter in 2023. Winston should be tasked with chucking the pigskin early and often, and the Browns might not have a choice but to ask a lot of him if theyâre in a negative game script against the favored Steelers.
Cedric Tillman Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cedric Tillman had a forgettable rookie season and was a non-factor to begin this season. Everything changed after the organization traded Amari Cooper to the Bills. It was precisely the opportunity Tillman needed to strut his stuff.
In four games without Cooper, Tillman has had eight, seven, six and three receptions for 81, 99, 75 and 47 receiving yards. He averaged 75.5 receiving yards in those games, with a median of 78.
Tillman has had eye-catching underlying data in Winstonâs three starts. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 8, Tillmanâs had an 89.3% route participation rate, 30.0% air yard share, 20.1% target share, 0.20 targets per route run and a 23.8% first-read share. Heâs also had a 14.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in Winstonâs starts. Thus, Tillman only needs a few receptions to surpass 40.5 receiving yards. FantasyPros projects Tillman to have 50.0 receiving yards against the Steelers.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.