Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Browns vs. Steelers (Week 12)

The Steelers were in one of the most anticipated matchups against the Ravens last week and won a typical AFC North, low-scoring slugfest. They’re in another AFC North battle against the Browns to open Week 12. Division matchups can be weird. However, the offensive tendencies for both teams are straightforward, and the most appealing player props lean into those tendencies.

Here are my best bets for Week 12’s Browns-Steelers matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Best Thursday Night Football Week 12 Player Prop Bets

All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.

Najee Harris Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-132 at BetRivers)

The Steelers are a ground-and-pound team with an offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who has a track record of feeding his running backs. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Steelers are tied for the NFL’s fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%). Last week, they faced the Ravens. Baltimore has faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%) since Week 8, and the Steelers had a 50% situation-neutral rush rate. Not even Baltimore’s pass-funnel defense could get the Steelers and Smith away from their run-first tendencies.

Najee Harris is the backfield’s workhorse. He’s handled 175 of Pittsburgh’s backfield’s 270 rush attempts (64.8%) this season. In the Steelers’ previous four games, Harris has handled 79 of the backfield’s 127 rush attempts (62.2%). Harris has toted the rock 21, 19, 21 and 18 times in Russell Wilson’s four starts. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites this week and should feed Harris over 16.5 rush attempts.


Nick Chubb Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

A positive game script for Harris’ rushing outlook is negative for Nick Chubb’s. The underdog Browns will likely be in a negative game script, which doesn’t bode well for Chubb to tote the rock much. In Chubb’s four games, he’s had 11, 16, 15 and 11 rush attempts. Chubb has averaged 13.3 rush attempts per game, with a median of 13.0. He’s also gone under 14.5 rush attempts in two of Cleveland’s three losses in that four-game span.

The short turnaround might also prompt the Browns to take it easy on Chubb since this is his first year back from surgery for multiple ligament tears, including the ACL. Finally, Cleveland’s offensive tendencies aren’t optimal for Chubb’s outlook for rush attempts, but there’s more on that in the write-up for the next prop.


Jameis Winston Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jameis Winston has made up for time spent watching Deshaun Watson from the sideline by slinging it. In three starts this season, Winston has averaged 44.3 pass attempts per game, with a median of 46. He’s chucked it 41, 46 and 46 times in his starts.

Winston’s gunslinging has been a stylistic match with Kevin Stefanski’s and Ken Dorsey’s play-calling philosophies. The Browns are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this season. Cleveland has kicked it up to a 64% situation-neutral pass rate in Winston’s three starts, a similar move after Joe Flacco took over as the team’s starter in 2023. Winston should be tasked with chucking the pigskin early and often, and the Browns might not have a choice but to ask a lot of him if they’re in a negative game script against the favored Steelers.


Cedric Tillman Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cedric Tillman had a forgettable rookie season and was a non-factor to begin this season. Everything changed after the organization traded Amari Cooper to the Bills. It was precisely the opportunity Tillman needed to strut his stuff.

In four games without Cooper, Tillman has had eight, seven, six and three receptions for 81, 99, 75 and 47 receiving yards. He averaged 75.5 receiving yards in those games, with a median of 78.

Tillman has had eye-catching underlying data in Winston’s three starts. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 8, Tillman’s had an 89.3% route participation rate, 30.0% air yard share, 20.1% target share, 0.20 targets per route run and a 23.8% first-read share. He’s also had a 14.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in Winston’s starts. Thus, Tillman only needs a few receptions to surpass 40.5 receiving yards. FantasyPros projects Tillman to have 50.0 receiving yards against the Steelers.


Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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