Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Chargers vs. Broncos (Week 16)
The Broncos and Chargers start Week 16 with an AFC West slugfest with playoff implications. The game’s spread is slight, which should allow both teams to play offense however they prefer. The most appealing player props were selected with the situation-neutral offensive tendencies of both teams in mind.
Here are my best bets for Week 16’s Chargers-Broncos Thursday Night Football matchup.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 16 Player Prop Bets
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise specified.
Bo Nix Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Bo Nix’s rushing production is a story of peaks and valleys. He’s had more than 19.5 rushing yards in seven games and fewer than 19.5 seven times this season. Still, Nix has averaged 23.4 rushing yards per game in his rookie campaign and is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback.
Nix is a talented scrambler, and the Broncos regularly ask him to drop back. Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Broncos have had a 61% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11. Thus, Nix should have ample scrambling opportunities against a team he already ran for 61 yards against earlier this season.
Additionally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chargers have yielded 23 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. Finally, Nix’s rushing prop at BetMGM is slightly more inviting than the 20.5 rushing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook and the 21.5 line at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Courtland Sutton is comfortably Denver’s top offensive weapon. He’s pacing the Broncos in every meaningful receiving stat. Below are his stats since Week 3, via the data suite at Fantasy Points:
- 78.2% route participation
- 13.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 43.8% air yards share
- 24.4% target share
- 0.28 targets per route run
- 33.9% first-read percentage
- 61 receptions (5.1 per game)
- 814 receiving yards (67.8 per game)
- 2.37 yards per route run
Sutton had a forgettable first two games of the season in Nix’s first two professional starts. However, he’s settled into a groove in 12 subsequent contests. Denver’s No. 1 wide receiver has surpassed 63.5 receiving yards in six of his past seven games. FantasyPros projects him for 65.9 receiving yards this week.
Marvin Mims Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-135 at BetMGM)
Unfortunately, Marvin Mims didn’t become a full-time player out of Denver’s bye. Instead, the second-year pro’s 27% route participation rate in Week 15 was the fourth-highest among Denver’s wide receivers.
Regardless, there’s a concerted effort to get Mims the ball when he’s on the field. He had four targets on 10 routes last week, and three were first reads. In Denver’s last four games, Mims was targeted on 34% of his routes and had 12 receptions (three per game), 218 receiving yards (54.5 per game), 5.32 yards per route run and a 14% first-read percentage.
He’s exceeded 23.5 receiving yards in three of his past four games and can do so again this week. Finally, Mims’ over for receiving yards at BetMGM is a more favorable line than at DraftKings Sportsbook (24.5), Caesars Sportsbook (25.5) and FanDuel Sportsbook (26.5).
Gus Edwards Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gus Edwards is a shell of what he was early in his career, and the writing was on the wall last year. The Gus Bus delivered 13 rushing touchdowns for the Ravens in 17 games last year but had a career-low 4.1 yards per carry on 198 attempts.
His efficiency has reached a new low since he’s not in the same backfield as the electrifying Lamar Jackson. This year, Edwards has averaged a pathetic 3.4 yards per carry on 8.7 rush attempts per game.
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman tried to get Edwards going early in the season, feeding him 11 and 18 rush attempts the first two weeks of the year. However, since then, he’s had three, six, 10, six, nine, six, 10 and eight attempts.
Instead of wasting rush attempts on Edwards in the last three games without J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers have aired it out. There’s no reason to believe they’ll feed Edwards more often against Denver’s pass-funnel defense. As a result, Edwards should tote the rock fewer than 10.5 times this week, running his streak to nine straight games under 10.5 rush attempts.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.