Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Commanders vs. Eagles (Week 11)
The NFC East is in the spotlight to open Week 11 in a battle between the two best teams in the division. The hosts are slight favorites, but it could be a back-and-forth shootout. This contest’s four most appealing betting selections are centered around two players, leaning into offensive and defensive tendencies and the game’s betting spread.
Here are my best bets for the Week 11 Eagles/Commanders matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 11 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Saquon Barkley Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Saquon Barkley has been a productive workhorse in Philadephia’s offense. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged 19.0 rush attempts per game, with a median of 18 in nine games. Thus, the line is fair for his average and median.
However, the matchup is critical for taking the over. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 7, the Eagles have had the highest situation-neutral rush rate (63%), and the Commanders have faced the highest situation-neutral rush rate (58%).
The Eagles took the foot off the gas against the Cowboys in Week 10, resulting in Barkley getting a breather with Will Shipley closing out the game. He should be well-rested enough to handle a massive workload in a plus matchup for the favored Eagles.
Saquon Barkley Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Barkley should eclipse 92.5 rushing yards if he surpasses his rushing attempts line of 18.5. Yet, he can also fall short of the previously touted over and exceed 92.5 rushing yards. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 50 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Barkley is third in yards per carry (5.80), second in yards before contact per attempt (3.23), tied for 22nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.56), 10th in explosive run rate (7.0%), 21st in stuff percentage (43.9%), tied for 25th in zone success rate (48.5%) and fifth in man/gap success rate (60.9%).
Barkley is feasting. The box score has told the same story. Barkley is averaging 110.1 rushing yards per game, with a median of 108. He’s surpassed 92.5 rushing yards six times this season.
It’s an eruption spot for Barkley in Week 11. According to Pro Football Reference, the Commanders have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (116.8) to running backs this season. Finally, Barkley’s line of 92.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook is a relative bargain versus 95.5 at -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook. I believe Barkley can surpass 95.5 rushing yards, too. However, there’s a middling opportunity. Since I expect Barkley to steamroll the Commanders, my preferred way to middle the line is to bet a unit on his over at FanDuel Sportsbook and a smaller amount, perhaps a quarter of a unit, on his under at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Commanders are tied for 20th in situation-neutral pass rate (52%) since Week 7. Obviously, that’s not ideal for Terry McLaurin’s receiving outlook. However, Washington’s uptempo offense is a plus. They’ve taken the fewest seconds to snap (25.0) and tied for the eighth-most plays per 60 minutes (65) in situation-neutral game scripts since Week 7.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have a pass-funnel defense. Since Week 7, Philadelphia is tied for the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) faced. The Commanders are also underdogs, which should cause them to air it out more often if they’re in a negative game script.
McLaurin is the primary beneficiary if Jayden Daniels chucks it more often this week. He had a slow start to the year but has exploded since. After opening the year with 17 and 22 receiving yards, he’s ripped off 100, 52, 112, 53, 98, 125, 19 and 113. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Washington’s previous eight games, he’s had a 43.4% air-yard share, a 16.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and 672 receiving yards (84.0 per game).
McLaurin has eclipsed 59.5 receiving yards in three of his past four games and six of eight. His receiving prop at FanDuel Sportsbook is also a bargain compared to 61.5 receiving yards (-121) at Caesars Sportsbook and 62.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Finally, FantasyPros projects McLaurin to have 64.3 receiving yards against the Eagles.
Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
McLaurin is more than a deep aDOT and air-yard monster. Since Week 3, he’s had a 22.6% target share, 0.25 targets per route run and a 28.5% first-read percentage. McLaurin has parlayed his hefty usage into 39 receptions (4.9 per game) in his last eight games.
During that eight-game stretch, McLaurin had four, seven, four, six, six, five, two and five receptions. His median was 5.0 receptions during that period, clearing 4.5 five times. FantasyPros projects McLaurin to have 5.0 receptions against the Eagles.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.