Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers (Week 5)
The NFC South will kick off Week 5 on Thursday Night Football with a battle between the Falcons and Buccaneers. A variety of player props are among the most enticing wagers for this contest.
Here are my best bets for the Week 5 Falcons/Buccaneers matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 5 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (+114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chris Godwin’s move back to the slot has been an unquestionable success this season. Godwin has the 12th-highest target share (26.6%) among wide receivers this season, parlaying his hefty target volume into 27 receptions (6.8 per game).
Godwin has had eight, seven, six, and six receptions in four games this year. So, he’s eclipsed 6.5 receptions twice this year. Now, he’s facing a defense that’s funneled targets to the slot. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Atlanta has faced the third-highest slot target percentage (41.3%) this season. Thus, getting +114 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook for Godwin to exceed 6.5 receptions for the third time in five games is tantalizing.
Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Godwin’s robust role should allow him to smash his yardage prop, too. The 64.5 receiving yards line at FanDuel Sportsbook is a gift compared to 66.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook and 67.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook.
Godwin’s numbers this season are outstanding, beyond his target share. According to Fantasy Points, among 75 wideouts with at least 75 routes this year, Godwin is 36th in air-yard share (27.3%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.28), ninth in yards per route run (2.75 Y/RR), 10th in first-read percentage (33.7%) and second in first downs per route run (0.179). Therefore, Godwin has had 83, 117, 53 and 69 receiving yards this season, putting him over 64.5 receiving yards in three of four contests.
Kyle Pitts Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-119 at Caesars Sportsbook)
A new coaching staff hasn’t unlocked Kyle Pitts. The athletically gifted tight end hasn’t turned his physical traits into production. Instead, he has career lows of 2.0 receptions per game and 26.3 receiving yards per game this season.
The underlying data is more damning. Among players on the Falcons, Pitts is fifth in target share (10.9%), fourth in air-yard share (13.3%), fifth in targets per route run (0.15), sixth in yards per route run (1.24 Y/RR) and fifth in first-read percentage (9.5%). In other words, he’s an afterthought in Atlanta’s offense. As a result, Pitts has had zero, 59, 20 and 26 receiving yards in four games this year. His under for 31.5 receiving yards is inviting.
Drake London Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Drake London hasn’t become a world-beater. Still, he’s off to a solid start to the year, averaging 5.0 receptions per game and 50.0 receiving yards per game. London’s numbers were dragged down by two receptions and 15 receiving yards in Week 1 when Kirk Cousins notably didn’t take snaps under center.
In the past three weeks, London has had six, six and six receptions for 54, 67 and 64 receiving yards. He also has rock-solid underlying data this season. Among 75 wide receivers with at least 75 routes this year, London is 18th in air-yard share (37.1%), ninth in target share (26.1%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.28), 30th in yards per route run (1.82 Y/RR), second in first-read percentage (37.8%) and 38th in first downs per route run (0.082).
Finally, London has a matchup against a pass-funnel defense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Buccaneers have faced the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this year. As a result, FantasyPros has projected London to have 64.7 receiving yards on Thursday night.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.