Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Giants vs. Cowboys (Week 4)
After back-to-back AFC East showdowns on Thursday Night Football, the NFC East is taking center stage tonight. After combing over sides, totals and player props at multiple sportsbooks for the most inviting bets and odds, I’ve settled on the following four.
Here are my best bets for the Week 4 Giants/Cowboys matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 4 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Devin Singletary Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Giants are 5.5-point underdogs at home tonight. However, they’ll run as long as the game remains close. According to RotoViz’s pace app, New York’s 59% situation-neutral rush rate is tied for the 10th-highest this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’s 57% situation-neutral rush rate against them is the second highest this year.
The Cowboys are utterly inept against the run. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Cowboys have the lowest stuff percentage (28.0%), yielded the second-most yards before contact per rush attempt (2.64) and ceded the ninth-most yards after contact per rush attempt (2.48).
They’re a train wreck, and Devin Singletary can run right through them. He’s a bell-cow back for the G-Men and parlayed his workload into 65.7 rushing yards per game this season. Singletary has exceeded 60.5 rushing yards in his past two contests. FantasyPros projects Singletary to have 62.8 rushing yards tonight.
Tyrone Tracy Anytime Touchdown (+700 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas’s inability to stop the run could open the door for Tyrone Tracy to see opportunities in this NFC East battle. Tracy had season highs for rush attempts (five), rushing yards (23), receptions (two) and receiving yards (17) last week. Furthermore, if Big Blue leans heavily on Singletary, he could need some breathers, setting the stage for a more prominent role for Tracy.
Dallas’s inability to stop running backs from gashing them for yards doesn’t tell the whole story of their ineptitude. According to Pro Football Reference, the Cowboys have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (six) and one receiving touchdown to running backs this season. As a result, Tracy’s +700 anytime touchdown odds are alluring.
Jake Ferguson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
While the Giants will lean into the run, the Cowboys will almost certainly lean into the pass. This season, the Cowboys’ 61% situation-neutral pass rate is tied for the fourth-highest mark. The Giants have faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate.
CeeDee Lamb is Dallas’s top weapon, but Jake Ferguson is comfortably their No. 2 with a lackluster collection of ancillary choices behind him. Ferguson’s 55.0 receiving yards per game are the second-most on the Cowboys.
The third-year pro assuaged concerns about his knee injury by amassing 95 receiving yards against the Ravens last week. Ferguson’s matchup is favorable tonight, too. Big Blue has faced an unexciting collection of tight ends and coughed up 42 receiving yards to Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt in Week 1, 67 to Zach Ertz and John Bates in Week 2 and 29 to Jordan Akins in Week 3. Ferguson will be the best tight end the Giants have faced this year, and he should have his way with them.
Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Why stop at Ferguson’s prop for receiving yards? His over for receptions is also tasty. According to Fantasy Points, Ferguson had a team-high 19.6% target share, 0.25 targets per route run and tied Lamb for a team-high 20.6% first-read percentage last week. Again, Ferguson erased any concerns about his knee hampering his performance. Ferguson hauled in six receptions on his 11 targets last week. He should be busy again tonight, making +125 odds for over 4.5 receptions attractive.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.