Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Texans (Week 9)
The Texans at the Jets had a lot more appeal when the schedule was made. Nevertheless, the game’s spread suggests it will be a competitive contest. A few of the contest’s biggest stars have the most appealing player props.
Here are my best bets for the Week 9 Jets/Texans matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 9 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Joe Mixon Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
It’s a beautiful situation for Joe Mixon’s rushing outlook this week. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Houston’s 49% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 5 was tied for the seventh-highest mark. Conversely, the Jets are tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%) against them in the same period.
The veteran running back has excelled in his first season with the Texans. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 53 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this year, Mixon is 12th in yards per carry (4.93), tied for 12th in yards before contact per attempt (2.25), 20th in yards after contact per attempt (2.68), tied for 15th in explosive run percentage (5.9%) and third in rushing yards per game (100.6).
Conversely, the Jets are leaky against the run. According to Pro Football Reference, they’ve yielded the 13th-most rushing yards per game (101.4) to running backs this season. FantasyPros projects Mixon to have 78.0 rushing yards this week, which brings up an intriguing option for betting on Mixon’s rushing prop.
His line of 77.5 rushing yards at BetMGM Sportsbook is much lower than the 80.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and 81.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. So, gamblers can conceivably middle this line by betting on his over at BetMGM Sportsbook and the under at FanDuel Sportsbook.
If Mixon rushes for 78, 79, 80 or 81 yards, attacking his rushing line by betting the over at BetMGM Sportsbook and the under at FanDuel Sportsbook would result in two winning wagers. Since I expect him to run well against the Jets, I wouldn’t advise making equal bets on his over at BetMGM Sportsbook and the under at FanDuel Sportsbook. Instead, betting a unit on his over at BetMGM Sportsbook and less on Mixon’s under at FanDuel Sportsbook would be a hedge on his over with the potential to double dip.
Breece Hall Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (+108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Breece Hall is unquestionably Gang Green’s top running back. However, he’s exceeded 15.5 rush attempts in precisely half of his eight games this year. Hall also reverted to pre-Todd Downing usage in Week 8 after handling a larger percentage of New York’s backfield’s rush attempts in Downing’s first two games as the team’s play-caller.
Speaking of play-calling, the Jets have a pass-first offense. In Downing’s three games as the play-caller, the Jets have tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%). They’re also merely mid-pack in plays per 60 minutes in neutral game scripts (61 plays), which isn’t favorable for Hall’s rushing volume.
The matchup isn’t ideal, either. Since Week 5, Houston’s defense is tied for the eighth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%) against them. As a result, Hall should tote the rock fewer than 15.5 times against the Texans.
Tank Dell Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Unfortunately, Tank Dell has endured a sophomore slump returning from a fractured fibula, which cut short his rookie campaign. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged only 3.4 receptions per game and 32.7 receiving yards per game this year.
Dell hasn’t made the most of Nico Collins getting hurt early in Week 5. Yet, the Texans desperately need him to step up after Stefon Diggs was ruled out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL.
Dell has had some rock-solid, if unspectacular, underlying data lately. In three games without Collins, Dell has had a 26.3% air-yard share, 18.9% target share, 0.20 targets per route run and 28.0% first-read percentage. Those marks should all surge without Collins and Diggs against the Jets. Thus, FantasyPros projects Dell to have 63.1 receiving yards against the Jets.
Garrett Wilson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
While New York’s offensive tendencies hurt Hall’s rushing outlook, Garrett Wilson’s receiving outlook is boosted. He’s also in a groove after a slow start. Wilson had 60, 57, 33 and 41 receiving yards through the season’s first four weeks.
In his past four games, Wilson has had 101, 107, 61 and 113 receiving yards. In two games with Davante Adams, Wilson has had 17 targets, 10 receptions and 174 receiving yards. Moreover, in that two-game period, Wilson has led the Jets in route participation (94.2%), air-yard share (55.4%), target share (25.4%), receptions (10), receiving yards (174), yards per route run (2.68) and first-read percentage (30.0%).
Wilson can take advantage of the opportunity against a pass-funnel defense. Therefore, FantasyPros projects him to have 63.7 receiving yards against Houston. Finally, his line at FanDuel Sportsbook is a slight bargain compared to 61.5 receiving yards at BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.