Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Rams vs. Vikings (Week 8)
The Vikings will attempt to rebound from their first loss of the season on Thursday Night Football, and their top offensive player could be heavily involved in bouncing back. Conversely, the Rams are slight underdogs, and their pass-catching hierarchy will be shaken up this week because of a returning stud. One of LA’s ancillary wideouts has an intriguing over, and the other has an eye-catching under.
Here are my best bets for the Week 8 Rams/Vikings matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 8 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Justin Jefferson Over 5.5 Receptions (-146 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Unsurprisingly, Justin Jefferson is having an outstanding season. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged 5.5 receptions per game, exceeding 5.5 in his past four games.
Minnesota’s superstar wide receiver is a target hog. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 140 players with at least 100 routes this year, Jefferson is second in target share (30.9%), tied for seventh in targets per route run (0.29) and third in first-read percentage (38.3%).
Furthermore, Jefferson’s elite rates are in a pass-happy offense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Vikings are tied for the 10th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (57%) this year. Thus, FantasyPros projects Jefferson to have 6.0 receptions against the Rams.
Justin Jefferson Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Jefferson should clear 82.5 receiving yards if he has 5.5 receptions. Additionally, he’s a big-play weapon, so he could get there without exceeding his reception prop.
Among players with at least 100 routes this year, Jefferson is sixth in air-yard share (44.7%), third in team receiving yards percentage (38.1%), third in receiving yards per game (88.5), 17th in yards per target (10.41) and second in yards per route run (3.03). Jefferson has surpassed 82.5 receiving yards three times in six games, including twice in his previous three games. FantasyPros projects him to have 90.6 receiving yards this week.
Demarcus Robinson Under 2.5 Receptions (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Cooper Kupp will return this week, and he’s a target vacuum. The pickings will likely be slim behind him, and Demarcus Robinson isn’t a target earner. Among 140 players with at least 100 routes this year, Robinson is tied for 123rd in targets per route run (0.14). His route participation could dip if Sean McVay rotates non-Kupp wide receivers.
Additionally, Robinson has averaged only 2.2 receptions per game despite Kupp missing the previous four games. Robinson has fallen under 2.5 receptions in four of six games, including four of the last five.
Tutu Atwell Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Tutu Atwell has stepped up in Kupp’s and Puka Nacua’s absences. Since he blanked in Week 1, he’s had 48, 93, 82, 58 and 51 receiving yards. Even with his bagel in Week 1, Atwell has averaged 55.3 receiving yards per game.
He has an 11.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 25.5% air-yard share, 0.26 targets per route run, 2.63 yards per route run, 10.06 yards per target and 23.9% first-read percentage. Even in a rotational role, Atwell can clear the low bar of 37.5 receiving yards, slightly discounted from 38.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook and 39.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. FantasyPros projects him to have 43.9 receiving yards.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.