Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Bengals (Week 10)
The Ravens and Bengals are squaring off in a rematch of an exciting Week 5 overtime shootout. Baltimore’s offense and Cincinnati’s defense create some mystery about how the Ravens will attack the Bengals. However, it’s straightforward how the visitors will attack the hosts. As a result, the most appealing bets from this week’s Thursday Night Football contest are all from the Bengals.
Here are my best bets for the Week 10 Ravens/Bengals matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 10 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Joe Burrow Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Joe Burrow isn’t a dual-threat quarterback in the mold of his opponent, Lamar Jackson. He’s not in the same tier as less electrifying running quarterbacks, either. Still, Burrow has some running ability. According to Pro Football Reference, Burrow has averaged 3.0 rush attempts and 13.0 rushing yards per game this year and 3.4 and 11.8 in 61 games in his career.
Additionally, Burrow is an efficient scrambler. He’s scrambled 13 times this year for a career-high 9.1 yards per scramble. Burrow has surpassed 8.5 rushing yards in six of nine contests, with a median of 10. Sadly, in the first meeting this year, he had only two rushes for one yard against the Ravens. Still, Burrow should be busy dropping back, giving him ample opportunities to scramble.
Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Continuing with Burrow likely dropping back often on Thursday night, the Bengals have a pass-heavy offense, and the Ravens have a pass-funnel defense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bengals are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) this year, and the Ravens are tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (59%) against them. Moreover, Cincinnati has had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 6, and Baltimore has faced a 59% situation-neutral pass rate in that period.
Burrow might also need more pass attempts than usual to move the ball since Tee Higgins hasn’t practiced yet this week after missing the past two games. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in Burrow’s four games without Higgins this year, he’s attempted 141 passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and with an average depth of throw of 7.1 yards downfield. Meanwhile, in five games with Higgins, Burrow has attempted 161 passes for 8.3 yards per attempt with an average depth of throw of 7.7 yards downfield. Finally, the Bengals are 6.0-point underdogs, so the game script should call for Burrow to sling it in catch-up mode.
Mike Gesicki Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
No one’s outlook improves more without Higgins than Mike Gesicki’s. NFL fans, fantasy gamers and sports bettors could be forgiven if they didn’t realize Gesicki was on the Bengals when Higgins was active. In that five-game sample, Gesicki had eight receptions for 71 receiving yards.
Gesicki, who’s essentially a jumbo slot masquerading as a tight end, has thrived without Higgins. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in four games without Higgins, Gesicki has had a 19.1% target share, 0.31 targets per route run, a 25.2% air-yard share, 23.7% first-read percentage, 5.5 receptions per game, 70.5 receiving yards per game and 3.28 yards per route run.
The veteran “tight end†has cleared 47.5 receiving yards in three of Cincinnati’s games without Higgins. He had just 18 receiving yards in the Bengals’ dreadful season opener against the Patriots. Yet, Gesicki has had 91, 73 and 100 receiving yards in three subsequent games without Higgins. Gesicki should clear 47.5 receiving yards against a defense that’s yielding an NFL-high 280.9 passing yards per game, per Pro Football Reference.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (-145 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Ja’Marr Chase, like Burrow and Gesicki, has eye-catching splits with and without Higgins. In five games with his running mate, he’s had a 22.4% target share, 0.21 targets per route run, 28.3% first-read percentage and 5.8 receptions per game on a 10.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
However, Chase’s usage drastically changes without Higgins. In those four games, Chase had a 23.4% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, a 32.0% first-read percentage and 6.5 receptions per game at a 5.5-yard aDOT. Burrow had fed his No. 1 wide receiver with shallow targets at a high rate when Higgins was out.
Chase has exceeded 6.5 receptions in back-to-back games. He also had a season-high 10 receptions against Baltimore’s leaky pass-funnel defense. Chase should exceed 6.5 receptions against them again this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.