Best Bets for UFC 289, 2023 Belmont Stakes & Stanley Cup Finals Game 4

by Mike Maher |
Jun 10, 2023

We have a rare jam-packed day of sports action on a Saturday in June, with UFC 289, the 2023 Belmont Stakes, and Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals all taking place today. As always, we have you covered with our daily best bets.

Today's Best Bets

Here are today's best UFC 289, Belmont Stakes & Stanley Cup Final bets.

2023 Belmont Stakes Best Bets

While it's a short field, the 2023 Belmont Stakes features a high-quality field with some big names and proven winners. So let's make the decision a bit easier by tossing a few of the runners.

(1) Tapit Shoes feels like a horse that'll be used as a rabbit to challenge the early pace and set up one of Brad Cox's other two horses for the stretch run. (2) Tapit Trice has the closing ability to be a factor, but his tendency to start slow could cost him in this lengthy race. (5) Il Miracolo will certainly go off as the longest shot in this race, and for good reason. His Equibase Speed Figures just don't stack up to this field. I'm also going to toss (4) National Treasure. Betting against a Bob Baffert-trained horse is a terrifying proposition. But I find it hard to imagine him having enough gas in the tank down the stretch given against fresher horses that are just as talented, if not better. It doesn't help that National Treasure runs best as a pacesetter, which could exacerbate those stamina concerns. And while I think (7) Hit Show could wind up hitting the board, I don't think he has enough to truly contend for victory.

As for a win bet, I will have two choices, Forte and Arcangelo. Forte has already built an impressive resume to this point and should be a factor from start to finish. Arcangelo is generating buzz during race week and rightfully so, as he recently won a 1 1/8-long Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. Angel of Empire is another horse I'll be considering in my exotics, but I worry the closer won't quite be able to overtake the leaders down the stretch.

Best bets to win: Forte, Arcangelo

â€“ Matt Barbato

For more 2023 Belmont Stakes bets, check out our comprehensive 2023 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide.

UFC 289 Best Bets

Betting Profile: Amanda Nunes (22-5 Overall / 16-3 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)

Amanda Nunes looks to continue her historic career with yet another successful title defense. After losing for the first time in over six years to Julianna Pena via submission in December 2021, she rebounded as many expected her to with an utterly dominant unanimous decision over Pena in July 2022.

That win was so convincing that we saw an ever-rare 50-43 scorecard. There is not much one can add that is not already known of the double-champ, as Nunes will go down as one of the most successful pound-for-pound fighters in the history of MMA.

With that latest performance against Pena, there is no denying that Nunes is still in her prime.

Betting Profile: Irene Aldana (14-6 Overall / 7-4 UFC)

The current number five ranked contender in the bantamweight division, Irene Aldana, gets her shot at the belt after Pena was forced out of her trilogy fight against Nunes due to a rib injury. While this is a nice opportunity for Aldana, and anything is possible when that cage door closes, she and Nunes are just on two totally different levels.

Aldana is a strong striker who throws in massive volume, which is why she has won each of her past two fights via knockout. However, her willingness to throw at high volume also leads to her taking a ton of damage throughout the fight.

Since joining the UFC, Aldana has absorbed 5.71 significant strikes per minute. With that said, she has an iron chin and has not been knocked out in nearly eight years.

Going to the mat is something Aldana will desperately look to avoid in this scrap, a place where she got dominated by Holly Holm in her latest loss.

Bottom Line

While Aldana will try to avoid the mat, Nunes could easily still take this fight there. We saw that game plan in her second bout against Pena, In that scrap, Nunes landed six of eight takedowns while racking up nearly 12 minutes of control time.

She is by far the better wrestler and grappler in this fight, and it would not be shocking at all if Nunes coasts her way to another dominating unanimous decision victory. Even if this fight stays on the feet, Nunes is still the better striker despite that being Aldana's one strength.

Nunes could out-strike her to a decision victory, but knocking Aldana out will be a tougher task due to that aforementioned iron chin. Three of Nunes' past four wins have come via decision, while each of Aldana's past four losses needed the judge's input.

Best Bet: Amanda Nunes via Decision (+310 via DraftKings - 0.35 units)

â€“ Tony Sartori

Stanley Cup Finals Game 4 Best Bets

Vegas Golden Knights (-102) at Florida Panthers (-118) at | O/U 5.5 (-122/+100)

The most significant problem that Vegas has had throughout the year cost them this game. When they have a lead, they've been known to ease off the gas and play more defensively, allowing Florida to remain in contention. Vegas had several scoring opportunities in this game, including an open shot when Sergei Bobrovsky was drawn away from the net, but Ivan Barbashev's shot hit the crossbar. The Golden Knights must play aggressively for 60 minutes going forward to put away this series.

The Panthers continue to show their resilience. Bobrovsky and Matthew Tkachuk, who had struggled through the first two games, came through when they needed them the most. Tkachuk grabbed the assists on the first goal, hovered around the net for the clutch goal late in the third, then did a great job approaching the net to give Carter Verhaeghe's shot an open lane for his game-winning goal.

The blue line was much better for the Panthers and did not allow as many chances in their zone, and it set up Bobrovsky for success. He had his best performance of the series, saving 25-of-27, including 11-of-12 high danger shots.

The most significant problem for Florida that they couldn't fix in this game was the penalty kill. The Golden Knights had two more goals with the man advantage, giving them a 35.2% conversion rate in this series. The Panthers were 23rd with 75.9% PK, but this is far below expectations, especially against a Vegas special teams that was 18th in PP% with a 20.3% conversion rate.

Vegas is 4-1 after a loss, and even with how well the Panthers played in this game, they were one puck hitting the crossbar away from going down 3-0. Vegas just needs to play hard from the first puck drop to the final horn because they have the talent to grab a victory.

Pick: Golden Knights Moneyline (-102)

2023 Belmont Stakes Betting Advice

2023 Belmont Stakes Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews and profiles for every horse competing in the 2023 Belmont Stakes and our expert analysis on the best best for the 155 Run for the Carnations.

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