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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/3)

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Happy New Year to all! We are officially in the year of March Madness, and I absolutely cannot wait. Until then, it's time to get excited for conference play to pick up steam, and game after game matters, as College Basketball slowly finds the spotlight in the sports world.

It was a fresh start to 2024 with a clean sweep yesterday, and I hope for a repeat effort tonight. As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds as some books aren't as sharp when it comes to the depths of college basketball odds.  

Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate.

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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

All wagers are for 1 unit | Last Time: 3-0 | Season: 26-22

#16 Clemson @ Miami

For two teams who have gone in opposite directions since the start of the College Basketball season, we have a near pick-em tonight with slight juice towards Clemson. The Tigers have impressed offensively, while the Hurricanes haven't been the most efficient squad without a really very win on their resumé yet.

For me, it's a clear under play here. Clemson's offense runs through its perimeter shooting with the 11th-best shooting squad from deep, and over 35% of their points come from long range. Despite Miami's 123rd-defensive efficiency ranking, they do excel at three-point defense, limiting teams to 26.4% from deep, the sixth-lowest rate in the country. The Hurricanes are disciplined at not fouling, so there should be very little coming from the charity stripe tonight for Clemson as well.

Miami excels offensively, but Clemson boasts an all-around game and does not allow many second-chance looks with an advantage on the defensive glass. Both teams would have to be elite at shooting from everywhere on the court. Given the Tigers’ historical road woes, I'm expecting a down game from them in the shooting department. Still, they are a better team, so while I can't take Clemson outright, the under is a pretty straightforward play to me here.

Play: Under 155.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Xavier @ Villanova 

These are two of the more difficult teams to handicap, considering Villanova's 317th consistency metric rating and Xavier coming in at 7-6 with some weird losses and respectable wins. I'd advise teasing this spread out in either direction, as I see Villanova winning by double-digit points or a Musketeers upset. The Big East is weird.

Similar to the previous game, both squads' defenses line up well with the opposing offenses and are the strengths of both teams. The Wildcats won't allow many second-chance looks, and despite a sub-par perimeter defense, Xavier prefers the inside look, with only 26% of their points coming from beyond the arc.

On the other side of the ball, it is the exact opposite. Xavier allows nothing from deep, which is where Villanova is expected to take over 42% of their shots, nearly 6% above the DI average. I don't like playing consecutive under, but that is the right play here.

Play: Under 141 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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