Bogman’s Best College Football Bets & Predictions for Week 1 (2022)
Check out my best bets for Week 1 of the college football season!
We're back for another fun-filled season of College Football, and I will be here to give my picks every week! Good Luck this season, and drop your favorite plays of the week in the comments!
WKU @ Hawai'i – Under 67.5
Week 1 is tough for oddsmakers and bettors alike, so let's use some info from Week Zero to help us! What we saw from both of these teams last week tells me they aren't ready to put their best foot forward quite yet, and I don't think much will change in a week. WKU mustered 388 total yards against FCS Austin Peay, and they only put up a total lower than that once last year, which was in a 27-point win against MTSU.
Hawai'i was demolished last week by Vanderbilt 63-10. They were 5/16 on 3rd down, punted six times, and barely cleared a 50% completion in the passing game. These offenses will get better, but right now, Hawai'i is adjusting to a new coaching staff, and WKU lost so many great offensive players. The defenses aren't great, but the offenses aren't clicking yet, so I'll take the under.
Utah (-2.5) @ Florida
Regarding talent on the field, I believe that Florida has more than Utah. Florida has had better recruiting classes than Utah every year for at least a decade, so that point has to go their way. In that same span, Florida has gone through four head coaches, including brand new HC Billy Napier this year. Finding someone to bring the best out of these high-end recruiting classes has been difficult for Florida recently, but Billy Napier might be the guy to do it. Napier led Louisiana for the past four seasons to four straight bowl games, a 40-12 record, and many school records.
Utah is coming off a PAC-12 Championship and a Rose Bowl loss where they went toe-to-toe with Ohio State (48-45). Utah returns five All-Conference players and seven starters on offense, including starting QB Cameron Rising. The offensive continuity, not just in players but Kyle Whittingham's experience, is why I'm picking the Utes in this game. Florida has a legit Heisman candidate in QB Anthony Richardson, and I think they'll get better under Napier, but Week 1 against a strong team is too much to ask, in my opinion. Give me the Utes!
Illinois (+4.5) @ Indiana AND Under 47.5
This game is going to be UGLY! Illinois was really impressive in their Week Zero win against Wyoming, scoring in every quarter and piling up over 250 rushing yards. That task won't be as easy this week in a road matchup against Indiana, as the Hoosiers return six starters, including two All-Conference players. Illinois also has the advantage on defense because they played together last week and held Wyoming to 212 total yards and two field goals.
Indiana is only returning three starters, but they all are on the line. My concern is that the starting QB, the top two RBs, and the No. 2 WR are all transfers. I feel this game will be two struggling offenses slugging it out. Illinois is struggling against a strong defense, and Indiana is struggling due to a lack of live reps together. In this picture I've painted, it benefits to take the team getting the points and the under, so we'll do that in an early season slugfest!
TCU (-13.5) @ Colorado
You'll have to get this one quick, as it was at TCU -10.5 a few days ago and seems to get bigger by the day! Sonny Dykes will bring a lot more offense to this team as his SMU teams were top 15 in passing and averaged over 300 passing yards per game. TCU was firmly in the middle last season at 60th in passing. While they won't jump up into that top 15 range, I think they should be much better with Chandler Morris at QB.
Quentin Johnston is an NFL-caliber receiver that only had 33 receptions last year and 22 as a Freshman, but that will change very quickly under Dykes. I know I've talked about continuity, and TCU has a new coach and offensive system, but Colorado is rough. They lost eight games last year, seven of which were wider than this margin, and I believe TCU will overpower them. Horned Frogs are easy in this one!
Other Bets I like:
- Pitt -7.5 vs. WVU
- Texas State @ Nevada – UNDER 51.5
- UTEP @ Oklahoma – OVER 56.5
- SMU -10.5 @ UNT
- Arizona @ SDSU – OVER 46.5
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