Mike Farrell’s Best College Football Week 1 Bets (2022)
Week 1 is upon us, and I'm taking on the five most significant games of the weekend (in my opinion) against the spread.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Notre Dame at Ohio State
The Buckeyes are a 17-point favorite at home as of this writing, and their offense will obviously be hard for the Fighting Irish to slow down. But I wouldn't touch the line unless it dips below that 17 mark, and I'd focus more on the OVER. The number is at 59 right now, which appears excessively low to me considering QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead an Ohio State offense that could put up 45 alone against most teams. The OVER has hit in 13 of the last 19 Ohio State games, but it's also 7-2 in Notre Dame's last nine games against the Big Ten.
The pick: OVER 59 (-110)
Oregon vs. Georgia (in ATL)
Considered a neutral site game, the Bulldogs will obviously have a huge advantage in atmosphere. But Oregon coach Dan Lanning helped build this UGA defense, and he knows the offense very well, so this could be a low-scoring affair - Or at least UNDER the 54-point number. When Georgia is a favorite, and the line is 17, the UNDER has come in 7 of the last 10 games. Add in Lanning's knowledge, and this should be the play.
The pick: UNDER 54 (-110)
Cincinnati at Arkansas
6.5 points favor Arkansas as of this writing, and I like that number if it stays below 7. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is efficient, and Arkansas has a strong rushing attack and a great defense. Cincinnati is replacing QB Desmond Ridder and could struggle offensively against LB Bumper Pool and the Hogs. Arkansas is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games in September, and their massive offensive line could do what Alabama did to Cincinnati last year in the college football playoff.
The pick: Arkansas – 6.5 (-110)
Utah at Florida
The Utes are a 3-point favorite on the road. Yet, that's a horrible number, so focus on the OVER here. Why? While Gators games often go under, Anthony Richardson is a difference maker at QB for Florida, and Billy Napier was brought it to improve the offense. And Utah has excellent offensive balance with QB Cam Rising and a strong running game led by Tavion Thomas and his 21 scores last season. Utah goes OVER in road games, and the OVER has hit in 12 of their previous 17 games.
The pick: OVER 51.5 (-110)
FSU vs. LSU (in New Orleans)
This is pretty much a home game for LSU and new head coach Brian Kelly who will look to get off to a strong start. The starting QB for LSU is unknown, but I expect we will see both Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier. I hate the -3 LSU line here, but the UNDER is enticing if it stays at 50. LSU has a lot of new faces, and FSU isn't consistent on offense, so look for a low-scoring game with LSU pulling it out.
The pick: UNDER 50 (-105)
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