Best Early Super Bowl LVII Teaser Bet (2023)
The 2022 NFL season finale wraps up in Glendale, Ariz., on Feb. 12. The Eagles and Chiefs matchup features both No. 1 seeds for the first time since the 2017 season when the Nick Foles-led Eagles defeated the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
This should be a great matchup with plenty of well-documented storylines. Chiefs HC Andy Reid faces off against the old team he coached for 14 seasons. There is also the matchup of brothers Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce. On the field, this matchup pits the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring offenses against each other. The spread indicates a close game, having hovered between 1-2 points in favor of the Eagles. As it stands now, the Eagles are 1.5-point favorites across most books for Super Bowl LVII.
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Best Early Super Bowl LVII Teaser Bet (2023)
Let’s take a brief look at how each team got here.
Chiefs’ & Eagles’ Paths to Super Bowl LVII
The Chiefs defeated the AFC South Champion Jaguars 27-20 at home in the Divisional Round. The big news of that game was the ankle injury that QB Patrick Mahomes sustained in the first half. He was able to gut through that matchup against a resilient Jaguars team. Moving to the AFC Championship, it was clear Mahomes was still hobbled in the 23-20 win over the Bengals, which saw him throw for 326 yards and two TDs. Outside of the questionable officiating in this matchup, there were questions regarding the game plan of Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. Per PFF, the Bengals only generated two sacks and four hits against a clearly hobbled Mahomes. The week off should help Mahomes’ mobility, but the Chiefs should expect the Eagles to dial up the pressure in the Super Bowl.
The Eagles’ road to Super Bowl LVII featured two home games against QBs Daniel Jones and a combination of an injured Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson for the 49ers. One can question the difficulty of the two matchups, but this was a direct benefit of being the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They also looked the part in both games, having won by a combined 55 points and not allowing more than seven points in either game. Jalen Hurts is back to full health, and the Eagles are 16-1 in games started by the third-year player. There is an obvious step up in class against the Kansas City Chiefs after facing the 9-7-1 Giants and an injury-riddled 49ers team.
With the backdrop set, let’s take a look at my favorite six-point teaser.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 / Over 44.5 (6-Point Teaser -120)
The current 1.5-point spread presents bettors with a good opportunity to employ the basic Wong teaser strategy for the Super Bowl. That is, with the Chiefs’ 1.5-point underdogs, a 6-point teaser allows bettors to push the line past the common numbers of defeat, 3 and 7, and still cover the spread. Why is this significant? The Chiefs did not lose a game by more than a TD all season. You would have to go back to Week 7 of the 2021 season, which spans 32 regular and post-season games, for a game that the Chiefs lost by more than seven points. You don’t need to delve into the matchup to feel comfortable with Mahomes and company getting 7.5 points in any game.
Moving on to the total, I decided to drop it by six points to 44.5. As mentioned above, these two teams are the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 scoring offenses this season. If we include the two post-season games, the Chiefs and Eagles have scored an identical 546 points across their 19 games (28.7 PPG). The 6-point cushion allows some breathing room because there is the possibility for the defenses to slow down the high-powered offenses. Specifically, the Eagles’ elite pass rush, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL with 70 sacks during the regular season, could be on display.
The health of the Chiefs’ WRs will be important to monitor, but Mahomes has been able to put up points regardless of who lines up on the outside. The bye week will help Mahomes’ ankle get closer to full health, but it also allows Andy Reid to put together a game plan to slow down his former team’s pass rush. While each defense should be able to generate pressure, there is too much talent on the offensive side of the ball for this total to go below 44.5.
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