Best First Basket Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 9 (2022)
Follow me on Twitter for more information and data @FirstBasketMan.
Top Plays: 9 of 42 (21.4%, +35.5u) *considering 1u risk for each bet* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
Check out all of today’s First Basket Player Prop Bets >>
MIAMI HEAT @ PHOENIX SUNS - NBA ON ESPN @ 7:30 EST
This will be the 2nd matchup of the year between the top teams in each conference. Bam Adebayo (68% Tip Win) will be jumping against Deandre Ayton (77% Tip Win) for the 1st time this year. Since the All-Star Break, Ayton has won all 7 of the tips he's jumped in, with the Suns scoring 1st in 5 of them. Adebayo has only won 3 of 7 tips since the break, and the Heat have only scored 1st in 2 of those games. With that, I'll be looking at the Suns with the most value.
First, I like the value on Suns to score 1st at +110 on some books. Should be -110 at most considering how dominant Ayton has been on tips lately.
Get this, in the last 10 games that the Heat were scored on 1st, it was a PF or C in 9 of them. In the last 11 games for the Suns, Deandre Ayton or Jae Crowder took the 1st shot in 9 of them (Ayton 6x / Crowder 3x). The only other guy to get look in that span was Mikal Bridges (2x). The SG, PF, and C make up for 60% of 1st team baskets scored against the Heat. I like Ayton +490 / Crowder +650 and love the value on Bridges at +1200.
With Devin Booker being back, the Suns’ worst position to defend against is the SG, giving up 24% of 1st team baskets against them. Devin Booker was on a tear prior to going out. I like him in a ‘get back’ game here to get the 1st look and cash.
Top Plays: Suns to score 1st +110, Devin Booker +600, DeAndre Ayton +550
Value Plays: Jae Crowder +800, Mikal Bridges +1200
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ UTAH JAZZ - NBA ON ESPN @ 10:00 EST
This will be the 3rd matchup of the year between the Jazz and Trail Blazers but should be a no-brainer who wins the tip. Rudy Gobert (56% Tip Win) will face Drew Eubanks (21% Tip Win) and the Jazz should definitely get the 1st look.
Despite the Jazz me expecting the Jazz to get the 1st look, I think it's worth noting that the Jazz have only scored 1st in 1 of their last 7 games including 0 times in the last 4 when they had an opportunity at 1st basket. I think there's value on the Trail Blazers to score 1st at +170 on some books.
I'm a believer that sometimes you have to go against the norm. Everybody will be playing the Jazz, but knowing they've been cold lately, I'll play the Trail Blazers.
The 2 worst positions for the Jazz to defend against are the SF and C. Josh Hart has taken the 1st team attempt in 3 of 5 games that Eubanks has been on the Trail Blazers.
Top Plays: Trail Blazers +170 1st to Score, Josh Hart +750
Value Plays: Drew Eubanks +1100
Bet $10 on Any NBA Game, Win $200 if Either Team Hits a Three-Pointer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
FirstBasketMan is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more, check out his archive and follow him for the latest First Basket Prop Bets advice @FirstBasketMan.