Best Home Run Bets: Masataka Yoshida, Shohei Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Friday)
All 30 teams are set to hit the field tonight as the MLB gears up for a stacked weekend slate! With all of the action comes a myriad of different ways that you can bet on any particular game. I’m taking it to the prop sheet where I’ve narrowed in on these three players to hit home runs tonight.
MLB YTD: 36-53 (+22.08 Units)
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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350)
The Blue Jays have hit a cold streak, as they’re now just 2-9 over their last 11 games. They’ll have an opportunity to turn things around tonight when they hand the ball to their ace, Kevin Gausman. Toronto takes the top team in the A.L. Central, the Minnesota Twins, and they’ll send Louie Varland to the bump. First pitch for the series opener is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN.
St. Paul native Louie Varland is set to make his sixth start of the season tonight as he takes on the vaunted Blue Jays lineup. The right-hander has been decent this season, posting a 2-0 record to go along with a 4.18 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 28.0 innings of work. However, he has been prone to giving up the long ball as opponents have launched seven home runs over those 28.0 innings.
He’ll be tasked with subduing a Toronto roster that’s dominated RHP this year, ranking second in team batting average (.266) and seventh in OPS (.762). Specifically, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .288 against righties, and all eight of his big flies have come against RHP. We do not have any head-to-head date in this matchup, but if the youthful Varland leaves anything over the plate by mistake, I feel confident that Guerrero Jr. will make him pay. Let’s lock in the slugger to go yard tonight.
Shohei Ohtani (+550)
The Angels remain at home for a weekend stand as they get set to host the Marlins for three games. Tonight’s pitching matchup is intriguing as Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for the Fish while Reid Detmers goes to the hill for the Halos. This interleague showdown is slated for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.
Luzardo is putting together a respectable season as he’s 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 10 starts. However, the left-hander is coming off the worst start of his season as he surrendered six earned runs to the Giants over 5.0 innings. He took the loss in the 7-5 defeat.
Miami’s hurler will be opposed by a Los Angeles offense that’s currently eighth in team batting average (.260) and 10th in OPS (.752). The top of the order is one of the most lethal lineups in baseball, featuring Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani. I’m going to lock in Ohtani to hit a bomb tonight. He already has 12 this season, which is good enough for fifth in the American League. Furthermore, we have some head-to-head data in this matchup, where the superstar has gone 1-4 (.250) against Luzardo with a homer. Let’s take Ohtani to go deep in the series opener.
Masataka Yoshida (+600)
Similar to the Blue Jays, the Red Sox have hit a skid as they’ve dropped four straight games on their west coast road trip. Up next is a stop in the desert where they’ll take on the Diamondbacks for a three-game weekend series. First pitch for the series opener is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
Tonight’s pitching matchup sees the red-hot Chris Sale go for the Sox while the Snakes counter with Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt will make his fifth career start in the opener, and things haven’t gone as planned for the right-hander. He’s 0-1 out of the gate with a 7.65 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He has also surrendered seven home runs over 20.0 innings of work.
Boston has been one of the best offenses this year, and that’s also held up against right-handed pitching. They come into tonight’s action ranked fifth in both team batting average (.262) and OPS (.765) against righties. Masataka Yoshida has found success against RHP, where he’s batting .302, slugging .517, and owns an OPS of .866 – all higher than his overall splits. Five of his six home runs have come against righties, and I believe he’ll have a great opportunity to put one over the wall tonight.
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