Best Home Run Bets: Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout (Saturday)
Today’s Props are top-loaded with a few of the best power hitters in the game. I usually try to avoid the chalk when it comes to HR props but today is an exception due to some great projections and matchups.
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Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets
Pete Alonso +280
Pete Alonso and Coors Field is a perfect combination for betting HR props. It is safe to say that I don’t need to dive deep into the analytics to tell you Pete Alonso is good. He leads the league in home runs with 19th and is second in ISO.
While Alonso did go 0-4 in last night’s contest but good news for us is the last time the Polar Bear went 0-4 he hit a HR in his next game. Just throwing that out there...
Aaron Judge +185
Like Pete Alonso, I don’t think it’s necessary to spit out a ton of advanced metrics to tell you how great Aaron Judge is. Judge is one of the hottest hitters in May, batting .328 with eight HR, four doubles, and 18 RBI.
As mentioned above Aaron Judge leads the MLB in ISO (.340) but that increases to .385 when facing a RHP.
Let's see if the Yankees' slugger can help us cash this ticket and hit his 9th homer of the season.
Mike Trout +340
Mike Nelson Trout, is there much more I need to say?
The Marlins are starting right-hander, Edward Cabrera who has given seven HRs over his last seven starts.
The bad news for Cabrera is that Mike Trout has the 12th highest ISO (.284) and has hit 10 HRs, 11th best against RHP.
Ryan Mountcastle +475
Ryan Mountcastle and the O's will be facing left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney (4.13 ERA) and lucky for Mountcastle, he has been smashing left-handed pitching this season. Among qualified hitters Mountcastle ranks 5th in the MLB in ISO (.394), and 11th in wRC+ (188)
His splits also tell the same story. Against RHP, he is only hitting .196 with four home runs with 41 strikeouts. On the flip side, when facing a left-handed pitcher, Mountcastle average jumps to .333 with seven home runs and only 12 strikeouts.
On top of that, Mountcastle is 3 for 4 with two home runs against Heaney/
Jake Fraley +750
Jake Fraley is making his HR Prop debut, with good reason. Jake Fraley only has five home runs this season but all five have come against right-handed pitchers. Today Fraley has the opportunity to add to his HR total as he faces Jameson Taillon, a below-average RHP.
While his power number and advanced metrics do not jump off the page, he projects well against the Cubbies today. According to Fantasy Pros daily projections, he has the 6th highest chance of hitting a long ball.
At +750 odds, it’s worth taking a chance with one of the best hitters in the Reds offense.
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