Best NCAA Tournament Round 1 Longshot Parlay (2022 March Madness)
There’s nothing quite as thrilling as booking a parlay for the first two rounds. Of course, I recommend placing a smaller than usual bet on your get-rich-quick bet given the unlikely odds of hitting it. But there’s always a chance, and that’s one of the best parts of the big dance.
Without further ado, here’s a breakdown of each parlay leg I’ll be booking for the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. This parlay would payout at 12/1 odds on DraftKings.
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(11) Colorado State +1.5 vs. (6) Michigan Wolverines, Thursday, 12:15 p.m. ET, Total 136.5
The opening game of the 2022 NCAA Tournament (excluding the play-ins) should be a thriller, as a Michigan team that many felt didn’t deserve to make the dance at all will square off against one of the top teams from the competitive Mountain West Conference.
How these teams will defend each other will be fascinating. Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson has a clear height advantage over Colorado State and the Wolverines rank 59th in 2-point percentage. The Rams utilize a smaller lineup that could give Michigan fits with its quickness. The Rams are also highly effective scoring inside, ranking 8th in 2-point percentage to go with 67th in 3-point shooting.
Neither team is a juggernaut defensively and rank outside the top 70 in effective field goal percentage defense. If these teams get off the bus ready to play, there could be plenty of points to go around. I also like Colorado State as a short dog, but feel more confident making the over our first play of this parlay.
(8) San Diego State Aztecs -2 vs. (9) Creighton Blue Jays, Total 120.5, Thursday, 7:27 p.m. ET
Our next leg is sure to be a rock fight, but with such a low total we won’t be adding an under to go with our over. An aside, I generally stay away from unders that are this low, considering teams will stubbornly foul whether the game is within range or not just to keep their season alive.
Both of these teams are really strong defensively. This is on-brand for a San Diego State program that lives to grind out games. But for Creighton, this is a new brand of basketball, and the Jays play it well. Creighton ranks 16th in defensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage defensively. San Diego State is somehow better, ranking second and fourth in those respective categories.
But there are two key factors that favor the Aztecs. The first is Creighton relies heavily on inside scoring with center Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton ranks 41st in 2-point shooting and 313th in 3-point shooting, a stark contrast. However, defending the interior is perhaps what San Diego State does best, as they’ve allowed teams to make just 43.1% of their 2-point attempts. San Diego State will gladly dare Creighton to beat them from the perimeter.
The other massive factor is turnovers. Creighton is really sloppy with the ball, turning it over on 20.5% of their possessions (306th in the country). And the Bluejays won’t have top ball-handler, Ryan Nembhard. On the flip side, San Diego State forces turnovers on nearly 22% of their opponents’ possessions, which ranks 31st in the country.
San Diego State should stifle Creighton. Lay the bucket, or take them moneyline if you want extra security.
The pick: San Diego State -2 or San Diego State moneyline
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(13) Vermont Catamounts +5 vs. (4) Arkansas Razorbacks, Total 139, Thursday, 9:20 p.m. ET
Our final Thursday leg takes us to the West Region, where I’m taking the cheese on one of the most popular underdogs of the first round.
The Razorbacks finished the year red hot, winning 15 of their final 18 games. But the Razorbacks inexplicably stubbed their toe against Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament semifinal. Arkansas will defend their hearts out, ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency, force a bunch of turnovers and make it hard to score inside. However, the Razorbacks aren’t strong offensively and have a tendency to start games slow.
The Razorbacks struggle mightily to shoot from the perimeter, hitting just 30.7% of their shots from distance. Arkansas prefers to do its business inside the arc and from the free-throw line, which plays right into Vermont’s hands. The Catamounts rank 20th in 2-point defense and 16th in defensive free throw rate, which means they don’t foul often on defense. Vermont also cleans up the defensive glass and should limit Arkansas’ second-chance opportunities.
Oh, and I haven’t even discussed Vermont’s offense, which is a thing of beauty. The Catamounts love to chuck threes and are great at shooting them. Vermont hits nearly 37% of its threes and nearly 60% of its twos. Things won’t come nearly as easily going from America East competition to an SEC opponent. But Vermont’s offensive principles are replicable. Let’s hope the Catamounts keep our parlay alive heading into Friday.
The pick: Vermont +5, take them moneyline if you’re feeling bold
(10) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers PK vs. (7) Ohio State Buckeyes, Total 132.5, Friday, 12:15 a.m. ET
The first game of Friday’s slate will be the final leg of our four-team parlay. The Ramblers lost coach Porter Moser and stud center Cameron Krutwig, but they were able to secure the Missouri Valley Conference playing the same style of basketball.
Loyola is a giant killer because they play a sluggish tempo and hit lots of threes, which is critical for any underdog in this tournament. This year is no different. Loyola ranks 310th in tempo and hits 38% of its threes. The Buckeyes aren’t bad at limiting deep balls, but allow teams to hit 34% of the shots they get off. Loyola is also stout defensively, ranking 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
There’s no doubt Ohio State is a talented team, but they’re also extremely difficult to trust. The Buckeyes also could be without Kyle Young and Zed Key, two critical forwards.
The Ramblers will have to limit Buckeyes star E.J. Liddell but should be able to limit him with a committee featuring senior forwards Aher Uguak and Chris Knight. Loyola also has veteran Lucas Williamson, who was a key member of past Final Four and Sweet Sixteen teams and is the Defender of the Year in the Missouri Valley.
I don’t think the Ramblers have the team to make a deep run in March, but they are battle-tested and will knock off the Buckeyes. Hopefully, the rest of your first-round betting is just gravy.
Total Parlay (DraftKings): +1200
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