Best NFL Futures to Bet Before Week 16 (2021)
Three weeks remain in the NFL season, and the playoff race is still wide open. The AFC is especially tight, with 12 teams between seven and nine wins. This means there are still some opportunities available on the futures market, and I’ve got three I like this week.
Check out our consensus NFL futures odds for a range of bets >>
Indianapolis Colts to be a Wild Card Seed (-280)
You’re going to have to look around for this market, but this bet is a layup. The Colts’ remaining schedule consists of road games in Arizona and Jacksonville and a home game vs. the Raiders. All they need is wins vs. Jacksonville and Las Vegas, games in which they will be heavy favorites, to lock up their spot. They could also win just one more game and still make the playoffs in certain scenarios. The only way this bet doesn’t hit is if the Colts find a way to win the division. The Colts need to win out for that to happen, and the Titans need to lose at least two of their final three. Tennessee should be getting AJ Brown back this week, and even if they lose to the 49ers, they will have a long week to get healthy and prepare for games against Miami and Houston. So even if Indianapolis wins out, which I give about a 27% chance of happening, I still don’t think they win the division. The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and have almost locked up their playoff spot, but Carson Wentz and their early-season struggles have made it too difficult to take the division so betting them to be one of the AFC’s three wildcard teams is a nice bet.
Jacksonville Jaguars under 2.5 wins (+150)
The Jaguars continued to look like a disaster despite being freed from the shackles of Urban Meyer. Their coaching staff will have more and more time to adjust as the season goes on and hopefully turn things around, but this is still a talent-depleted team with a bad quarterback and coaching. Jacksonville’s last chance for a win comes this week against the Jets, where they are in the range of a pick-em to 2.5 point underdogs. The Jaguars will play New England and Indianapolis in the final two weeks. I project them to be at least 10-point underdogs in both games. With that in mind, this is basically a New York Jets +150 moneyline bet. Both teams have awful defenses and quarterbacks, but the Jets have more talent on offense, better coaching, and are at home.
Tom Brady to win MVP (+200)
The betting markets have whittled this down to a two-horse race between Brady and Rodgers. Jonathan Taylor has received some MVP hype, but we must remember he is a running back and does not deserve to come anywhere near the most valuable player discussion. The Bucs’ stinker on Sunday Night Football was huge for Rodgers’ chances at taking home this award as the Packers are now heavy favorites to have the league’s best record and take the NFC’s number one seed. Team success is critical in the MVP discussion, and Rodgers will have that on his side. Brady at +200 is still a good bet because his team has also been very successful this year, and he has a considerable edge statistically. Tampa Bay is 10-4 and has games against the Panthers, Jets, and Panthers again to finish out the season. They should win all three and finish even with, or just behind, the Packers in terms of record. Brady has 861 more yards than Rodgers and six more touchdowns. Despite losing Evans and Godwin, that lead should continue to grow as Brady gets Antonio Brown back and has matchups vs. New York, a terrible defense, and Carolina, who Brady has dominated as a Buccaneer. One final nail in the Rodgers MVP coffin is that he won the award last year, and voter fatigue could come into play. With similar team success and a substantial statistical edge, the greatest quarterback of all time is a great bet to win the MVP at +200.
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Jack O’Brien is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jack, check out his archive and follow him @JackOBrienNFL.