Best Super Bowl LVII Player Prop Bets Odds & Picks (Eagles vs. Chiefs)

Best Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes Over 287.5 passing yards (-115)

Mahomes won his fifth game in the AFC Championship Game with 300+ passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns, which is tied for the second-most such games in postseason history. And while much will be made of Philadelphia’s ferocious pass rush all week (the Eagles are one of four teams in NFL history with 70+ sacks), Mahomes looked comfortable under pressure against Cincinnati, even with a gimpy ankle. When pressured against the Bengals (he was pressured on 39% of dropbacks), Mahomes completed 9-of-13 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. He had completions to ten different receivers after losing three of his top wideouts, but he managed the game beautifully and did not start forcing balls to Travis Kelce (he had one tight window throw to Kelce last week). Even after suffering the ankle injury against Jacksonville, Mahomes went 12-of-18 for 118 yards and a 1-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a passer rating of 103.5. Thus, we have confidence Mahomes will have a big game, even with all the injury concerns surrounding the Chiefs.

Mahomes -0.5 passing touchdowns H2H with Jalen Hurts (-110)

To clarify, this bet would cash if Mahomes ends up with more passing touchdowns than Hurts. The -110 odds seem favorable given that the O/U of 1.5 on Hurts’ passing touchdowns is juiced to the Under (-125), while Mahomes’ O/U of 1.5 is heavily juiced to the Over at -215. Entering the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes ranked first among all quarterbacks on throws inside the pocket in QBR (73), passing touchdowns (35), and first down percentage (42%). This ended up hurting the Bengals, against whom he accumulated 80% of his passing yards from inside the pocket. Compared to Hurts, Mahomes has averaged more passing yards per attempt (8.0 to 7.8), totaled more touchdowns (49 to 39), and has a higher passer rating (105.5 to 100.6). With Mahomes also having plenty of Super Bowl experience that Hurts does not have, we expect this bet to cash easily.

Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 receiving yards (-115)

Entering the NFC Championship Game, Deebo Samuel led all wide receivers and tight ends in 2022 with 9.0 yards after the catch per reception, per Next Gen Stats. However, Goedert ranked second in that metric, and his 58.5 receiving yards per game were second-most this season among tight ends. This suggests that the Eagles coaching staff does an outstanding job of scheming Goedert open, and we expect him to have another big game with the Chiefs likely to focus their defensive attention more on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Chiefs to win by 7-12 (+475), Eagles to win by 7-12 (+550)

If one is looking for game props that offer good value, bettors can cash in a big score with DraftKings’ “winning margin” bet. Six of the previous seven Super Bowls have been decided by at least six points, with three of the last five winners winning by a margin that fell in the 7-12 point range. The -2 point spread suggests this game will be closer than that, but backing both teams on this wager at a minimum of +475 odds is too good a price to pass up.

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