Best Under the Radar College Football Bets for Week 0 (2021)
While Labor Day weekend marks the “official†start of the 2021 college football season, a few games actually take place this weekend. Folks, Week 0 is upon us.
This Saturday’s slate features five games total, the most prominent being Nebraska at Illinois. A clash between two Big Ten West opponents will surely generate the most action from bettors. But this series is all about looking at the games that aren’t getting a ton of public attention.
I’ll run through my favorite picks each week involving games that aren’t on the national radar. And there’s no better week to start with than Week 0. Keep in mind, I recommend these as smaller plays. Don’t blow your bankroll too early!
Bet $20, Win $100 if UCLA Wins or Loses Against Hawaii >>
UCLA Bruins -17 vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
This is the only other game involving a Power 5 program during Week 0, and it should be an entertaining one. I like this UCLA team a lot and expect the Bruins to finally break through in Chip Kelly’s fourth season.
UCLA returns 20 starters (10 on each side of the ball), including quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR is immensely talented, but he’s shown a knack for questionable decision-making in his two seasons as UCLA’s full-time starter. However, Thompson-Robinson could reach a new level with the hiring of Ryan Gunderson as quarterbacks coach. A rising star in the collegiate coaching ranks, Gunderson helped San Jose State finish top-20 in passing yards per game last season and helped Arkansas transfer Nick Starkel throw for 2,174 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Thompson-Robinson is surrounded by an experienced offensive line (73 career starts) and six of his top seven pass catchers.
Defensively, the Bruins bring back a ton of experience, which is always a plus. However, experience can only go so far, as this unit has surrendered more than 30 points per game and more than 400 yards per game in each of defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro’s first four seasons.
Hawaii returns 18 starters from a successful 5-4 campaign, including all 11 on defense. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is an electric, dual-threat passer who led Hawaii in passing and rushing yards a season ago. He’ll also have his top two pass catchers and four of his top seven receivers back in 2021.
While Hawaii isn’t typically known for defense, this year’s unit features 10 upperclassmen as starters and could buck that trend. The Rainbow Warriors also could have the best secondary in the Mountain West after allowing just 197 passing yards per game in 2020.
I like both of these teams entering the season and expect the Warriors to give the Bruins a stiff opening test. Hawaii’s secondary will test the growth of DTR. It’s also worth noting that Kelly is 2-6 as a home favorite at UCLA. Last season, the Bruins went 1-3 straight up as home favorites. While I expect UCLA to win, I think it’ll be only by two scores.
The pick: Hawaii +17 or better
UTEP Miners -9 (-110) at New Mexico State Aggies
The Battle of I-10 returns after last year’s contest was canceled due to COVID-19. The Miners have been one of the worst programs in the country over the last four years, going 7-39 since 2017.
So why am I laying nine points on the road with them? Because the 2020 season might’ve been a turning point. UTEP went 3-5 last season and has 19 starters returning, including all 11 on offense, in coach Dana Dimel’s fourth season. The Miners also rank 30th in the country in Phil Steele’s experience chart and have a ton of returning production.
Sophomore quarterback Gavin Hardison returns after throwing for 1,419 yards, five touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2020. He’ll benefit from having his top three pass catchers back, as well as leading rusher Deion Hankins. UTEP also brings back eight of its top 11 tacklers on defense.
On the flipside, New Mexico State could be one of the worst teams in the country this season. The Aggies had their 2020 season canceled and went over a year without getting on the field before squeezing in two games during the spring.
The Aggies went 1-1 with an embarrassing 43-16 loss to Division II Tarleton State, and a 36-29 win over recently added WAC member Dixie State during the spring. New Mexico State had a yardage differential of -182 and a -2 turnover differential in both of those games against subpar opponents. Quarterback Jonah Johnson Jr. wasn’t good enough, throwing for just 358 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
These programs appear to be headed in opposite directions. UTEP could fight for bowl contention this season, while New Mexico State’s small sample size from the spring was hardly encouraging. I’m happy to take a small shot on the Miners at anything under -10.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.