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Top 6 Odds & Picks for UFC Fight Night (8/13)

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Let’s take a look at the best odds and picks for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.

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Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz

As mentioned in the introduction, this bantamweight bout is the main event of this card. This scrap could have some title implications down the line as Vera is currently the #5 bantamweight contender while Cruz is #8.

Since making his return to the UFC in 2020, Cruz has proven that he still has it by winning each of his non-title fights against Casey Kenney and Pedro Munhoz (current #9 bantamweight). One of the best that the bantamweight division has ever boasted, this fight will be Vera’s biggest test of his career.

While he certainly looks to be ready for it, I am not sure there is justification for the -265 price tag on him. Let us look at Vera’s last four wins.

The first of those came against Sean O’Malley, who is about to take on Petr Yan to try to earn a shot at the title. However, I am not too impressed with that win for Vera as O’Malley rolled his ankle multiple times early in the fight, causing him to stay down and allow Vera to finish him.

Vera’s next win came against Davey Grant, who is just 5-5 in the UFC. His next win came against a retiring Frankie Edgar, who had lost three of his last four fights.

The final win of this stretch for Vera came against Rob Font, which is a good win. However, that win showed some gaps in Vera’s defense as Font landed 271 strikes in that fight.

Boasting a lot more experience and success than Font, Cruz should be able to take better advantage if Vera’s defense is that poor again. I am not trying to take too much away from Vera. He is a very good contender and deserves to probably be a favorite in this fight.

But does he deserve to be a -265 favorite? I do not think so, and I believe that Cruz could still make one last run. Vera has never been finished, so the odds on Cruz to win via decision are +280.

While +280 is not as big of a long shot as I usually throw into these picks, it is the pick I like the most in this main event.

Pick: Dominick Cruz to Win via Decision (+280)

While it’s easy to see why Vera is the favorite in this fight, I have things much closer than 2/1. For one, Cruz is the more technical fighter and, despite the long career and 8-year age difference, has taken way fewer shots than his tenure might suggest.

A closer look at Vera’s six fights since the start of 2020 aren’t as impressive as would meet the eye, either, as wins over untested Sean O’Malley and aging veteran Frankie Edgar would otherwise make him 2-2 over that span. I’ll gladly take the nearly 2/1 odds on the underdog for a fight I see more of a coin flip.

Best Bet: Dominik Cruz (+190)

Ode Osbourne vs. Tyson Nam

In the third fight of the prelims, we have a flyweight bout between Ode Osbourne and Tyson Nam. Coming into this scrap as a 2/1 underdog, we are rolling with Nam to knock out Osbourne.

While Nam is just 2-3 since joining the UFC, that record does not tell the whole story. Those three losses were to Sergio Pettis (debut), Kai Kara-France (current #3 flyweight), and Matt Schnell (current #8 flyweight).

To be fair, his two wins are against some relatively low-level fighters (Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev). However, each of those two wins was via knockout as Nam possesses some crazy striking power for the 125-pound weight class.

Check it out for yourself. So the question is, can Nam repeat that powerful striking against Osbourne?

I believe the answer is yes. We know that Osbourne is capable of being caught, as evidenced by his first-round loss to Manel Kape via flying knee.

While Nam does not have a great win on his resume, neither does Osbourne, as his four UFC wins have come against Zarrukh Adashev, CJ Vergara, Jerome Rivera, and Armando Villarreal (DWCS). Osbourne’s losses are not even as impressive as he lost to Kape (current #13 flyweight) and Brian Kelleher (unranked).

Osbourne’s youth and two-fight win streak are the justification for his betting line, but this fight is mispriced and should be much closer to a pick ’em. I think either of these guys can catch each other, and at 5/1, Nam is certainly worth a stab.

Pick: Tyson Nam to Win via KO/TKO (+500)

UFC Fight Night Parlay Odds & Picks

Leg 1: Lupita "Loopy" Godinez moneyline (-325)

Angela Hill (37 years old) will not be surprised by the game plan Godinez uses. Godinez (28 years old) averages 5.37 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and will look to control Hill on the mat. Hill has solid takedown defense (76%), but Godinez displayed a different level of wrestling in her last fight. She landed all eight of her takedown attempts and had 13:26 of control time.

Angela Hill is a veteran capable of being dangerous in the octagon, but, unfortunately, she is in the later part of her career. With a nine-year difference in age, the younger fighter wins 68% of the time. Godinez is in her prime and only getting better. Angela Hill has lost 5 of her last 6, albeit versus high-level competition. She got taken down three times in her last fight and may get taken down more in this fight if Godinez has her way. “Loopy” should win via unanimous decision.

Leg 2: Bruno Silva vs. Gerald Meerschaert does not go to decision (-360)

Silva is coming off a loss in March at the hands of soon-to-be title challenger Alex Pereira. Meanwhile, Meerschaert last fought at the end of April against Krzysztof Jotko, who won by unanimous decision. Silva typically looks to put on a show and go for a knockout. Meerschaert, on the other hand, will look to use his high-level submission skills.  26 of his 34 wins are via submission. Silva has 29 career fights and has stopped his opponent via knockout 19 times. In five of those, he lost via submission. Meerschaert has a path to victory through his ground game if he can secure a takedown or knock Silva down. Silva's path to victory is the knockout, which is very possible. Meerschaert was knocked out twice in 2020 but has racked up some cage time since then. Either way, the judges likely will not be needed.

Leg 3: Marlon Vera moneyline (-240)

The main event between Marlon "Chito" Vera (29 years old) and Dominick Cruz (37 years old) is likely to be an entertaining bantamweight bout. Cruz depends on his cardio and experience in five-round fights to pick apart his opponent. His movement is one-of-a-kind and is a huge part of his defense. However, everyone loses some speed with age. Vera should be the faster man in this matchup. Cruz does have a lot of experience, especially in five-round fights, but Vera has been fighting in the UFC since 2014, so he is experienced in his own right. Vera is in his prime and looks to improve immensely with each fight.

Vera is extremely quick and did not lose a step going into the fourth and fifth rounds against Rob Font in his previous fight. Even though Font was peppering him with huge volume, he consistently landed damage in each round. Vera will likely look to land calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement and create a more stationary target. Then he will look to deploy his array of kicks and elbows to damage or finish Cruz. Cruz’s game plan of attrition may not come to fruition. This is a tough matchup for Cruz, so he may look to use wrestling (2.88 takedowns landed per 15 minutes). He will have to be careful because “Chito” has won eight of his 19 professional wins via submission. Vera will look to play spoiler on Cruz’s homecoming and is the better side in this fight.

Parlay: +137 on DraftKings

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