Bills vs. Bengals: NFL Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 17)
On Monday night, the Bills head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. On paper, this is shaping up to be one of the games of the year in the AFC. The winner of this game is alive in the race for the top seed in the AFC, while the loser is unlikely to secure a first-round bye. We’ll also get a chance to see two of the best young QBs in the NFL – Josh Allen and Joe Burrow – go head to head.
The Bills come into this game as one-point favorites, and the game total sits at 49.5 It should be a high-scoring, tight matchup.
I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay offered by DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s game.
Leg 1: Joe Burrow 2+ Passing TDs (-175)
After breaking out for Cincinnati last season, Joe Burrow is producing an MVP-caliber season in 2022. Burrow is on pace to throw for over 4,800 yards and nearly 40 TDs. His TD production is especially impressive lately, having thrown for at least two TDs in eight of the Bengals’ last 10 games. One of the games where he missed the mark was a blowout win over Carolina where the Bengals pulled their starters early.
Buffalo has a great defense this year, but their comparative advantage is their ability to stop the run. The Bills allow just 87 rushing yards per game, ranking top-10 in run defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 10 rushing TDs to opposing RBs in 15 games this season. I expect the Bengals’ game plan to be pass-heavy, especially around the goal line.
In what should be a high-scoring game, Burrow posting two TDs is a strong possibility. This play is also correlated with the next leg of our parlay.
Leg 2: Ja’Marr Chase 100+ Receiving Yards (+170)
Just like his QB, Ja’Marr Chase is picking up where he left off last season. He missed a few games due to injury, but Chase’s 17-game pace would put him near 1,500 yards with 12 TDs this season. He’s cemented his place as one of the best WRs in the NFL.
If the Bengals do opt for a pass-heavy game plan, Chase is going to be the main beneficiary. Buffalo’s pass defense is good as a whole, but they do allow 160 yards per game to opposing WRs – a top-10 mark in the NFL. This includes games in the last three weeks against the Jets and Dolphins where they allowed over 200 yards to the opposing WR group.
If Burrow airs it out on Monday night, I expect Chase to see plenty of targets. Given his production and the relative weakness of the Buffalo defense against WRs, I like his odds of breaking 100 yards.
Leg 3: Josh Allen 1+ INT Thrown (-150)
Josh Allen is having a sensational year, but he has been turnover-prone. His 13 INTs on the season are third-most in the NFL, and he throws an INT roughly once every 40 pass attempts. This is a high total, but it’s even higher when you factor in that the Bills have held leads for large portions of their games, meaning they can afford to be less aggressive. Against the Bengals, I don’t think that will be the case.
Cincinnati is middle-of-the-pack in terms of forcing INTs, but they’re a good pass defense that forces their opponents to make plays. I expect the Bills to have to make big plays to stay in this game, and given that Allen can be loose with the football when the pressure is on, this could be a recipe for a turnover. I like the price here at -150.
Parlay Odds: +500
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