Bills vs. Broncos NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)
Introducing the Wild Card Weekend edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Wild Card Weekend matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bills vs. Broncos.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer>>
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Sides:
- The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 home games.
- The Bills have won each of their last eight home games.
- The Buffalo Bills are 22-8 as a favorite since the start of last season and 15-15 ATS.
- Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 16-2 straight up and 10-8 ATS at home.
- The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
- The Bills have won 19 of their last 24 games.
- The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites (66%).
- The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games against AFC opponents.
- Bills are 9-7 ATS as road favorites.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
- The Bills have won their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
- As a road underdog, Buffalo is 3-4 straight up and on the Moneyline (33%).
- Denver is 5-2 ATS as road underdogs (the only blown covers came against the Ravens and Chargers).
- As underdogs, the Broncos are 5-4 ATS (2-7 straight up).
- The Broncos are 8-9 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-5 ATS last nine road games).
- They are 9-9-1 as road underdogs (50%).
- The favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Broncos’ last 13 games.
- The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 13 games.
- The Broncos have scored first in seven of their last eight games.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as favorites.
- The Broncos have won each of their last nine games as favorites.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
- The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
Totals:
- Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in nine of their last 10 games with their starters.
- Ten of the Bills’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- They are 7-1 toward the over this season (51.6 points per game).
- Fifteen of the Bills’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line – 21 of their last 27 road games.
- Twelve of the Bills’ last 14 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the Bills’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Bills’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Broncos’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Broncos have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL (BUF defense ranks 16th)
- Nine of the Broncos’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Broncos’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Sixteen of the Broncos’ last 29 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Broncos’ last four postseason games has gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Denver has been untouchable as a favorite this season. 9-0 ATS and straight up.
However, as underdogs, it has not been the same type of success. Denver is 5-2 ATS as road underdogs (the only blown covers came against the Ravens and Chargers). As underdogs, they are 5-4 ATS (2-7 straight up).
It's important to note that Denver went 1-5 against playoff teams during the regular season (not counting the game versus the Chiefs' backups). 2-4 ATS against playoff teams.
As is typical of some of these middle-tier playoff teams, they beat down the bad teams but fail to stack up against the best teams in the NFL. Case in point: the favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Broncos’ last 13 games.
Buffalo has the capability of being that bully team in this matchup. They tend to play extremely well at home, and they will be playing off a rested Week 18 game, compared to Denver's win and in scenario.
When these lines first dropped, I was shocked to see Buffalo favored so heavily by over a touchdown. And since the market opened, it has just moved more in favor of the Bills who are 8.5-point favorites.
I felt like Bo Nix's strong rookie season would have provided him with more love from the sportsbooks, but that has not been the case. More forces are working against him as a rookie QB making his first road postseason start in a hostile environment.
Even so, we might see the line narrow closer to Sunday.
Either way, I like the Bills to win comfortably by more than a TD in this game. Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in nine of their last 10 games with their starters. Denver has won one game when they have allowed 30 points on defense this season. In the other three games that they have given up 30 points, they have gone 0-3 straight up and ATS.
As for the total, I am 100% backing the over. Buffalo is calling for a slight chance of snow in the forecast, so there's a chance we get this total at a suppressed number. Because I don't think any weather or the Broncos defense can stop Buffalo's offense at home.
They are 7-1 toward the over at home this season, averaging well over 50 points per game. And five of the Broncos’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line. In the games where Denver failed to cover the spread against playoff teams (Ravens, Chargers x2), the game went over the total, averaging over 50 points per game.
Props:
Khalil Shakir contributed 25 yards on three receptions back in Week 17. Shakir led the way with six targets in the first half and was hyper-targeted on 33% of his routes run.
The Bills slot WR's production has fallen off the last few games, where Buffalo has played in weird game scripts. Even so, Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in nine of 15 games this season.
I like his receiving prop OVERs at 53.5 receiving yards, given he won't be catching coverage from Broncos CB1 Patrick Surtain as the team's No. 1 slot WR.
Denver had allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid also rested last week with the Bills starters. He has played in three games since returning from a three-game absence and he leads the team in red-zone targets over that span.
The second-year TE hasn't scored since Week 8. Kincaid only has four TDs in the regular season, but he scored in his first playoff game last season. Look for a repeat performance on Wildcard Weekend.
Jaleel McLaughlin started and contributed with 16 carries, totaling 39 yards, at an average of 2.4 yards per carry. Rookie Audric Estime had 12 carries for 34 yards and one touchdown. Javonte Williams added five carries for 28 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt, while Jarrett Stidham rushed 2 times for 7 yards. Michael Burton had a single carry for 3 yards.
McLaughlin saw his snaps increase to 41% despite the blow-out victory. Estime finished third in snaps at 24%. He also saw six of his 12 total carries on the Broncos' final drive in the fourth quarter.
McLaughlin led with 14 carries through the first three quarters, to Estime's two and Williams's three.
McLaughlin is the current RB1 for the Broncos.
Williams is still the preferred pass-catching back, so we could see him get worked more with Denver as an underdog on the road in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs.
Therefore, I like the under on Estime's props. Less than 6.5 attempts and 23.5 rushing yards. Before the fourth quarter against the Chiefs, in the favorable game script, he was sitting on two carries for four yards.
My Picks: