Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Week 7 Odds & Picks (2023)
Gear up for another weekend of NFL action! Make sure to check in with BettingPros throughout the year for top picks and predictions for each and every NFL game. Our writers dive into their favorite picks and predictions for every remaining game on this weekend’s NFL slate. And let’s take a closer look at Bills vs. Patriots.
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Patriots
Bills vs. Patriots
Before I begin, I want to recognize how painful this was to write. But the Patriots have to be the play here. This is the first time since Tom Brady's rookie season that New England is a home underdog of greater than a touchdown under Bill Belichick. And the trends aren't on our side here, as Belichick's Pats are 3-7 as a home dog since Brady left the team. But boy, this is a lot of points to be laying with a Buffalo team in a road divisional spot after the Bills didn't come close to covering against the Giants as massive home favorites a week prior. New England should've covered last week if not for a perplexing safety taken by Mac Jones late. And while I recognize that betting on Mac Jones could be the equivalent of lighting money on fire, I think there are some issues with this Bills team. Josh Allen is banged up, for starters. And the Buffalo defense is banged up and already without Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano. Fans are starting to wonder whether it's time for the franchise to move on from Bill Belichick. But I'll back Belichick one last time to ugly this up, similar to what he did against Philadelphia and Miami earlier this season. Belichick will have a plan for phasing Stefon Diggs out of the game, and New England tops the league in rush defense EPA. And if Belichick can confuse Allen into a turnover or two, that might be all we need to cover this big number. This is truly Belichick’s last stand.
Pick: Patriots +8.5
-Matt Barbato
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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