Boca Raton Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Toledo vs. Liberty)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Boca Raton Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the upcoming week.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Boca Raton Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Boca Raton Bowl | Boca Raton, FL
Tuesday, December 20 | 6:30 PM
Toledo (-5) vs. Liberty | Total: 54
ATL: Pick ‘em | ATT: 58
Liberty
RB Dae Dae Hunter (Injury)
WR Jaivian Lofton (Transfer portal)
OG Jacob Bodden (Transfer portal)
DT Dre Butler (Transfer portal)
DE Stephen Sings V (Transfer portal)
DE Marquise Brunson (Transfer portal)
LB Ahmad Walker (Transfer portal)
Liberty suffered a rash of injuries in the regular season, and was particularly ravaged at the quarterback position. But both QB1 Charlie Brewer and QB2 Kaidon Salter — along with QB3 Johnathan Bennett, who played a much larger role this season than expected due to the injuries— played in the regular season finale. You’d figure both would be healthier for this game. Liberty’s quarterback situation is much-improved for this game in comparison to the the majority of the regular season.
RB Hunter suffered a season-ending torn LCL in November. It was a devastating loss for Liberty’s offense. A transfer from Hawaii, Hunter was one of Liberty’s two-most valuable assets on offense. The ground game has not been the same since he went down. RBs Shedro Luis and TJ Green have assumed Hunter’s workload. Green barely played at the beginning of the year but did show some flashes in the last few games with increased usage. WR Lofton was the team’s second-best PFF-graded receiver, but he was being used as a backup. OG Bodden and DE Brunson barely played.
DL Butler was a rotational piece who appeared in all 12 games. He did decent work this fall, but Liberty has the depth to cover for his defection. Basically the exact same thing could be said about DE Sings, though he appeared in 11. Liberty will be fine up front so long as they don’t suffer an in-game injury. LB Walker’s loss hurts. Walker, who posted 64 tackles this fall, was the team’s best linebacker. Walker transferred to SMU.
Toledo
QB Tucker Gleason (Injury)
OG Lavel Dumont (Transfer portal)
No impact, here. QB2 Gleason was inactive for the MAC Championship Game due to a hand injury. In that game, QB1 DeQuan Finn returned from injury and played the entirety, helping the Rockets down Ohio 17-7. Finn’s good to go – he ran for 96 yards against the Bobcats when you take out the yardage of the one sack he took. OG Dumont did not acquit himself well in the four games he appeared in this fall.
Coaching news
Liberty HC Hugh Freeze left to become Auburn’s head coach and will not coach in this game. The Flames will play for interim HC Josh Aldridge, a staffer since 2019. Liberty started 8-1, but didn’t appear as prepared during the three-game losing streak to end the regular season as Freeze flirted with Auburn and rampant rumors swirled around the team. From that perspective, Liberty is in a better spot coaching-wise in this game than it was over the latter-part of November.
Handicap
To former HC Freeze’s credit, over the first nine games, he was able to navigate a devastating rash of injuries at the sport’s most important position as Liberty raced out to an 8-1 start. Now, with QBs Brewer and Salter back, the Flames’ offense should more or less be back in business.
The loss of RB Hunter hurts Liberty, but probably not as much as the availability of a healthy Brewer and Salter helps it. Offensive viability is big against Toledo, which features a strong defense.
But so does Liberty. In fact, the Flames actually rank three slots higher than Toledo in SP+ defense. That’s even after Liberty’s face-plant in those last-three regular season games.
Toledo has been a bit of a paper-tiger bully in 2022. The Rockets didn’t beat a team ranked higher than SP+ No. 87. The team that was ranked No. 87, Ohio, was playing without by far its best player in that game (QB Kurtis Rourke).
Liberty seemed to quit on former HC Freeze down the stretch. We’re banking on the fact that the Flames will normalize with Freeze and his drama having moved on, and with Liberty’s quarterback room at long last now stabilized.
Liberty suffered more defections in advance of this game. But even with those baked into our adjusted number, we still have this game lined as a pick’ em. And while Liberty’s interim staff is at an experiential disadvantage, Toledo HC Jason Candle’s 1-4 ATS record in bowl games doesn’t exactly inspire.
The pick: Liberty +5
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