Boise State Broncos vs. BYU Cougars Odds & Game Pick (2021)

On Saturday, there are some big games on the slate, with four games between two ranked opponents. However, this game between Boise State and BYU has serious potential.

Boise State is just 2-3 on the season and have losses to UCF, Oklahoma State, and Nevada, all by 10 points or less. The Broncos have struggled to close out games but continue to be competitive. Any time Boise State takes on a ranked opponent, there’s a chance an upset can happen.

Meanwhile, BYU is 5-0 and ranked 10 in the nation through five weeks. The Cougars already have wins against Utah and Arizona State and probably wished Boise State was ranked for this game to help their chances at playing in the College Football Playoff. While it’s unlikely that BYU will get that opportunity, the conversation only continues if they win out.

With a big test at home, can BYU get the job done and win six straight?

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Details

• Opening Line: BYU -.5, O/U 55
• Current Line: BYU -5, O/U 55
• Last meeting: November 6, 2020, BYU 51, Boise State 17

Overview 

Last year, with Zach Wilson at quarterback, BYU had no problem scoring points against Boise State. Now, without Wilson, BYU has continued their success, winning their first five football games of the season, with two ranked wins earlier on in the year.

BYU is averaging 29.2 points per game along with 404.6 yards per game. However, in their last game against Utah State, BYU was missing several starters, including quarterback Jaren Hall, who has thrown for seven touchdowns in limited game action.

The offense still did its thing with backup quarterback Baylor Romney, who was also injured later in the game and didn’t return. So at this point, it’s unclear who will be at quarterback for BYU, but regardless, it seems like the offense continues to find ways to score no matter who is out on the field.

The Cougars defense has held their own, allowing just 19.4 points per game along with 379.4 yards per game. The Cougars have been elite stopping the run game and have been above average really everywhere on defense, allowing 128 yards on the ground and 251.4 yards through the air.

Still, there are questions with the health of BYU and their football program. That could put them in a vulnerable spot against Boise State, even at home.

Despite a 2-3 record, Boise State has played much better than the record would indicate. Hank Bachmeier has thrown for 11 touchdowns along with four interceptions and 1,520 yards. The offense is averaging 374.6 yards per game and hasn’t really figured it out in the run game. The most glaring reason why the offense has struggled is due to the offensive line. They can’t block in the run or pass game and have set the offense back because of it.

On defense, the Broncos have looked great in coverage, allowing just 220.6 yards passing per game. However, the run game is lacking on defense, as Boise State holding teams to 194 yards on the ground per game. Boise State has struggled tackling, and they’re not getting pressure on the quarterback as much as you’d like. Therefore, they’ve struggled. Still, all three losses have been by 10 points or fewer. If the offensive line starts to improve, this entire team will improve. They’ve got playmakers all around offensively.

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Trends 

• Cougars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Over is 5-0 in Broncos last five games in October.
• Over is 4-0 in Broncos last four games on grass.

Bottom Line 

At this point, the injury bug might finally hurt BYU this week. There are still no updates on the BYU quarterback situation, and Boise State’s defense is no walk in the park. They’ve been covering well via the secondary, and if a second or third-string quarterback comes in looking to save the day, they’re going to have trouble making plays down the field.

BYU’s defense will spark the Cougars and will likely get to the quarterback at will knowing just how bad Boise State’s offensive line has played.

I want to call a potential upset, but without knowing who is exactly playing for BYU, I’m not going to do it. Instead, I’ll look at the under in this game. Either BYU plays with a backup, or they’re playing with a Hall, who more than likely, won’t be 100 percent. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense has been so dominant. Now they’re going up against a Boise State offensive line that hasn’t protected in the pass game or helped in the run this season, very often.

Let’s take the under in this exciting matchup.

Pick: Under 55 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.