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Broncos vs. Chargers Picks & Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football

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As the holiday festivities roll on, the stakes in the NFL continue to climb, and Week 16 gifts us an intriguing AFC West duel under the Thursday night lights! I’m Andrew Erickson, ready to guide you through every detail of this prime-time battle between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers at the electrifying SoFi Stadium.

I’ll provide expert insights on the spread, total, and crucial player props for this key matchup. Whether you’re crafting a winning same-game parlay or scouting for the best prop bets, I’ve got everything you need for this high-stakes AFC West clash.

Prepare for a game that promises to entertain both fans and bettors alike. So, grab your holiday treats, settle back, and gear up to place your bets on this Thursday night showdown. Keep an eye out for the full BettingPros Week 16 Primer dropping later this week!

NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Broncos' last 10 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
  • The Broncos are 8-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-3 ATS last eight road games).
  • They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The Broncos have scored last in each of their last four games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Chargers are 9-5 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 11 of the Chargers’ last 14 games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in their last seven home games.
  • The Chargers have scored first in five of their last seven road games.

Totals:

  • These teams rank first and second, respectively, in red-zone defense.
  • Seven of the Broncos' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Broncos' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Broncos' last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Denver is 4-2 O/U at home, averaging 44.8 points per game.
  • Eleven of the Chargers' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twenty-one of the Chargers' last 29 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Chargers' last 17 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 9-5 toward the under this season.
  • Ten of the Chargers’ last 11 home games against the Broncos have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Chargers are banged up. OL Zion Johnson missed practice on Monday/Tuesday, while Justin Herbert is dealing with yet another ankle injury. It’s not ideal for a short week to have a hampered QB missing a key offensive lineman.

The Bolts have struggled this season against some of the stiffer competition, which was very apparent last week in the home loss to the Buccaneers. Case in point, the Chargers have lost each of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.

However, in many of these contests, they were expected to lose. The Chargers typically perform well as favorites (78% ATS this season).

Denver has performed perfectly as favorites this season, boasting a 7-0 record. Denver hasn't lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season. 4-1 ATS as road underdogs (only blown cover came against the Ravens). As underdogs, they are 4-3 ATS (2-5 straight up).

And that includes their seven-point loss at home to the Chargers back in Week 6. Denver was a three-point home underdog.

So, although it doesn't seem strange that the Chargers are favored here at home, 2.5 points might be a bit much. Understandably, the Broncos are coming off a poor offensive performance in a game gifted to them by the Colts. But it's not as if the Chargers are riding high in any capacity entering this game. They fell apart in the second half against the Buccaneers.

My initial lean on this game was to back the Chargers as a slight home favorite, and that's still the side I like if forced to choose.

But a rematch divisional game on a Thursday Night screams chaos, so I'm not overly confident. Still, I'll take my chances with Herbert over Bo Nix any day. And Denver can't continue to cover games after falling behind every week.

However, I'd much rather look to bet the game total.

As for the first score, the trends suggest that the Chargers will draw first blood. Even in last week's game, where they gave up 40 points, they were the first team to reach 17 points. Denver has scored last in their last four games.

Gus Edwards has been a slug rushing this season, but 7-1 odds for him to score first for a team favored at home as the primary red-zone rusher seems too good to be true. I also like some of the under-the-radar Chargers TEs to score first (more to come).

Onto the game total. The main course.

This is a layup for an under. And I don't think we need to be overly concerned about a fluky defensive TD. Herbert broke his interception-less streak last week, so I'd presume he goes back to high ball security. And the Broncos DST has scored TDs in back-to-back games. It’s not likely sustainable.

The Chargers are a notorious under team, but they are on a heater of four straight overs at home in the dome. Last week, I avoided the sides and went right for the over on the game total. But Bo Nix versus a limping/gimpy Herbert doesn't bring the same firepower as the QB matchup from Week 15.

This same matchup back in Week 6 closed at 37 points, going over at 39 points. But the game was 23-0 in favor of LA entering the fourth quarter before Denver scored 16 unanswered.

And what is my favorite stat for backing the under in this contest? Red zone defense. These are the top two teams in red zone defense this season. Even if their generally one-dimensional offenses can move the ball between the 20s, I am confident they still stall out near the red zone. Denver's offense has been a bottom-five unit in the red zone on the road this season.

Take the under at 41.5.

Props:

The Chargers don't stack the box or defend runs under center. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chargers’ defense has aligned in a light box on 75.1% of defensive plays this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

On run plays, the Chargers have utilized a light box on 57.5% of plays, the 4th-highest rate.

The Broncos couldn't run on the Chargers in their first meet-up, and will be down Jaleel McLaughlin. We could see more of rookie Audric Estime this week. Javonte Williams has rushed for fewer than 16 yards in four of his last five games.

Quentin Johnston has scored a touchdown in each of the Chargers’ last four games as favorites.

Bo Nix led the rushing attack with 23 yards on eight carries last week, averaging 2.9 yards per carry. I like Nix's chances of running a lot against the Chargers in Week 16. He rushed for 60-plus yards against them earlier this season, and the Chargers have allowed a ton of yardage to opposing QBs. He is also 71% toward the over in games where the Broncos are underdogs (5/7).

Nix has recorded most of his scramble runs against man coverage this season, scrambling on 9.6% of dropbacks (4th-highest). Nix has gained 117 rushing yards on such scrambles this season (5th-most) and +12.2 EPA (4th-most in NFL). Nix struggled to pass against the Chargers in man coverage back in Week 6, completing just 1 of 5 passes for 2 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, compared to 18 of 28 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown against the zone. However, he scrambled on 3 of 8 dropbacks against man coverage, picking up 29 rushing yards and three first downs.

Gus Edwards has been stuck on neutral since his return to the lineup. He has fewer than 37.5 rushing yards in five straight games and has 50-plus yards in just two games played this season. Take the under on his 37.5 rushing yards prop this week.

Tight end Stone Smartt caught five passes for 50 yards (one red-zone target), while Quentin Johnston also had a solid game in Week 15, grabbing five catches for 45 yards and one red-zone touchdown (two red-zone targets), with a long of 13 yards. QJ was the standout receiver, with 109 air yards (41% of the team’s total) and 31% of the target share. He finished with 10 targets.

Smartt was also a key contributor, contributing 56 air yards (21% of the total). He earned five receptions from 6 targets (19% target share), accumulating 50 yards, but did not score. Smartt played 67% of the snaps and was targeted on 27% of his routes. He also picked two penalties on deep pass targets, so a total of eight targets in his starting debut. He fumbled toward the end of the game, though.

Justin Herbert loves to target his tight end at a high rate, regardless of who the tight end is. I like taking the OVER Smartt's 36.5 receiving yards prop this week. Over in back-to-back games since he has seen the role increase.

Just keep tabs on Hayden Hurst. Will Dissly is out, but Hurst might return and put a damper on Smartt's receiving ceiling.

Rookie WR Troy Franklin added two receptions for 9 yards last week. Franklin was targeted 5 times (29% target rate per route run). He contributed to the Broncos’ air yards with 26, making up 15% of the total. His target share was 16%, though he did not find the end zone. Franklin had another red-zone target and deep ball, but alas, no production.

Franklin played more snaps than in Week 13 and was again so close to hauling in a deep pass from his old college QB. A matchup against a leaky Chargers defense might be exactly what the former Oregon Duck product needs to finally pop. Back-to-back games where he has posted strong per-route-target numbers.

Franklin ranks 12th overall in the NFL in deep targets. He has the second-highest deep ball target rate in the NFL at 39% (second only to Alec Pierce). The Chargers defense ranks 30th in EPA/target on deep targets. His most routes run this season came against the Chargers back in Week 6, where he caught a deep ball and scored a TD.

According to Next Gen Stats, Franklin (41.7%) and Marvin Mims (32.3%) rank first and second, respectively, in deep route (20+ yards) rate among all players with at least 100 routes run this season.

However, Franklin has caught just 3 of his 18 deep targets for 85 yards, resulting in -189 receiving yards over expected (fewest in the NFL). Mims has hauled in just one of his six deep targets, which went for a 93-yard touchdown in Week 13.

My Picks

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