Introducing the Wild Card Weekend edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Wild Card Weekend matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Buccaneers vs. Commanders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer>>
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sides:
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
- The Commanders have won the first half in 10 of their last 15 games
- The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams with losing records.
- The Commanders have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games.
- The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last 10 games.
- The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in six of their last 11 games.
- The Commanders have lost eight of their last 16 home games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 23 games.
- They are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games as favorites.
- The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last eight games following a win.
- In five of the Buccaneers' last seven games, the first score has been a Buccaneers Touchdown.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Buccaneers have won 15 of their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
- Tampa Bay is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 13 games.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
- The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 20 games.
- The Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have won seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
- Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
- The underdogs have won nine of the last 24 Buccaneers' games.
- Tampa Bay is 4-4 ATS against the NFC South, with two losses against the Falcons.
Totals:
- Nine of the Commanders' last 12 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Ten of the Commanders’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eighteen of the Commanders’ last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Commanders are 6-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51 points per game.
- Each of the Commanders’ last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
- When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 8-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 18-4 toward the OVER.
- Washington has the fifth-highest scoring offense in the NFL (28.5) and sixth-best red-zone offense.
- Each of the Commanders' last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Buccaneers' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Tampa Bay is 12-5 O/U this season (6-3 at home, averaging nearly 51 points per game).
- The Buccaneers score the 4th-most points per game in the NFL (28.5) and have the NFL's 4th-best red zone touchdown percentage.
- Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 45 points total at home since 2023 (7-10 record toward the over).
Overall:
The Commanders have won their last five games. They have taken care of inferior opponents but have struggled when tasked to go up in weight class.
Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games against teams with winning records. Jayden Daniels is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Their offensive line struggled so much last week against Dallas that Dan Quinn was forced to get Daniels out of the game in the second half of Week 18.
The Buccaneers are coming off another wacky game against the New Orleans Saints. They were forced to stage a fourth-quarter comeback and emerged victorious. But they were nowhere near covering the two-TD spread. Tampa Bay's defense couldn't get off the field against rookie QB Spencer Rattler, and their offense failed to convert in the red zone in the first half.
Rattler threw for 240 passing yards with tight end Juwan Johnson as his No. 1 pass-catcher.
The Buccaneers are such a boom-or-bust team from both an offensive and defensive perspective.
Mayfield can be a turnover machine, and the defense blitzes like crazy. You love that when they are underdogs to create chaos, but it makes them extremely vulnerable as favorites when they need to win by a specific margin.
Like I said last week, fading Mayfield as a home favorite laying points works out more often than not.
Among all the games on Wildcard Weekend, this has to be my least confident pick. And therefore, I'll just roll with the underdog catching the points in what is looking like a potential shootout. The best value is to take the Commanders on the ML.
As I mentioned earlier, Washington is in 3-3 ATS as an underdog. Aside from the two blow-outs (one loss and one win for the Commanders), each game was decided by one score or less.
In terms of offensive efficiency, the Commanders/Buccaneers also rank inside the top 3 in touchdowns, yards and EPA/play in the fourth quarter. I think we get a photo finish on Sunday Night Football that comes down to the final fourth-quarter possession.
As for the total, I love the over, even at the high number. This is the best bet to make on this game.
Tampa Bay games have gone over at an extremely high rate this season, especially in home games. I'd also like to point out that every single game the Buccaneers have played that has been a spread of +/- 4.5 points or less (eight games) has all gone OVER the closing line total.
Props:
The Commanders’ rookie quarterback has exceeded his passing yards projection in three straight games this season (when healthy), and that streak should continue against Tampa Bay. Take the over on his 229.5 passing yards in Week 19.
His rushing yards prop is also a strong bet to make. He has 60-plus rushing yards in his last three full starts. He also hit 88 rushing yards in the first matchup versus the blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense back in Week 1.
In the Commanders’ Week 18 backfield, Austin Ekeler contributed 12 yards on three carries (4.0 yards per carry), while Brian Robinson was limited to just 10 yards on five attempts (2.0 yards per carry).
Ekeler returned from IR and immediately stepped into a sizeable role. Led the backfield with a 60% snap share to Robinson's 40%.
Unfortunately, the former Alabama running back didn't score for the third straight week. And it won't get easier against a run-stuffing Buccaneers defense in the Wildcard Round.
The Buccaneers defense contacted Saints ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on 14 of 18 designed runs (77.8%), the 6th-highest rate by a defense in a game this season. Overall, the Buccaneers allowed a season-low -16 rushing yards before contact against designed runs on the day via Next Gen Stats.
Receiving-wise, Terry McLaurin had a strong performance with 62 yards on eight catches, including a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter.
McLaurin has a juicy matchup on deck versus the Buccaneers' pass-funnel defense in the first round of the postseason. Take the OVER on his receiving yards in Week 19.
Zach Ertz fell short of his lofty contract incentives as he needed nine catches for 90 yards and two TDs in Week 18.
Regardless, TB is a great spot for him to continue his hot streak. He has over 38.5 receiving yards in his last two games. Eight of the last 10 TEs TB has faced have gone OVER their receiving yards projection.
Baker Mayfield's passing performance was efficient as he completed 21 of 32 passes for 221 yards, throwing for two touchdowns while taking one interception. Mayfield has gone OVER his passing yards in five of the last seven games.
Mike Evans has 68-plus receiving yards in seven straight games.
Jalen McMillan was another key contributor, hauling in 5 receptions for 74 yards and scoring one touchdown with a long reception of 33 yards.
It's been five straight strong games for Jalen McMillan-19% Target share, 7 TDs, and 63 receiving yards per game with 24 catches for 316 yards and 7 TDS.
Five straight overs with at least 51 receiving yards. More than 50.5 receiving yards on Wildcard Weekend? Yes, please.
On the ground, running back Bucky Irving was the standout performer in Week 18, rushing 19 times for 89 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and scoring a touchdown with a long of 25 yards. Irving played 72% of the snaps to Rachaad White's 27% snap rate.
Irving out-touched White 45 to 7 in the last two weeks, including 21 to 1 in Week 18.
We should see plenty of TDs on Sunday night, so I like taking some longer shots on under-the-radar Commanders pieces. Most notably, Dyami Brown. He is a big-play threat and was the target leader in the first half of last week's game (four targets). He reclaimed his role as the No. 3 WR, and he should see ample opportunities to collect targets in a high-scoring affair.
My Picks:
- Over 50.5
- Commanders ML
- Jayden Daniels OVER 235.5 passing yards
- Terry McLaurin OVER 58.5 receiving yards
- Jalen McMillan OVER 49.5 receiving yards
- Zach Ertz OVER 37.5 receiving yards
- Baker Mayfield OVER 238.5 passing yards
- Dyami Brown anytime TD (+500)
