Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, & Best Bet (2022)

by Ben Wolby |
Aug 11, 2022

The summer is here, and the start of the NFL season will be here before we know it. Now is the time to start digging into NFL futures, both team futures and player futures. NFL futures can be great ways to profit during the upcoming season. We'll have you covered throughout the offseason with updated news and odds for all futures and Week 1 odds. Let's look at updated 2022 NFL team win totals and futures odds.

Team Betting Previews

NFL Futures Odds

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What are Team Futures?

Futures refers to any team-based wager for a future event or a result. These bets often do not pay out until weeks or even months from when they are initially placed. Bets for win totals and the Super Bowl winner are good examples of team futures bets.

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds (+650)

The Bills are obvious Super Bowl contenders. Quite possibly, the Bills were an overtime coinflip away from being Super Bowl contenders last season.

Buffalo has had a quiet offseason with one minor exception: Former All-Pro and Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller is now a Bill. The impact Miller may have cannot be understated. His addition late in 2021 put Los Angeles in a position to contend. The same could be said about the Bills this season.

Buffalo is without a doubt one of Vegas' favorite teams; theyâ€™re projected to score the 2nd most points in 2021 and allow the 3rd fewest. Buffalo is also just one of two teams to be favored in 16 games this year.

The +650 implies there is a 13% chance Buffalo wins it all this year. I think the true probability is slightly higher than this and would have no problem taking this bet.

Buffalo Bills Conference Winner Odds (+350)

Despite the argument in favor of Buffalo above, I would stay away from this bet. In my opinion, the only NFC team I'd currently put ahead of Buffalo is Tampa Bay. If Buffalo wins the conference, I think there is a good chance that they win it all.

I'll stay away from this bet at these odds in favor of Buffalo to win the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills Winner Odds (-200)

I believe in Tua, Mac Jones, and even Zach Wilson to an extent, but Buffalo winning the AFC East is far more likely than 66.6%.

To put it in perspective, Buffalo has an average strength of schedule (12th) and is the projected favorite in 16 games this season, the most of any NFL team. No other team in the AFC East is projected or favored to win more than 9 games.

Buffalo's win total line is 11.5 - the Dolphins and Patriotsâ€™ win total line both sit at 8.5. The only other division where a team has a line with 3 wins more than the next closest team is Tampa Bay in the NFC South. The NFC South is often touted as the worst division in football this year.

The Bills winning this division feels far more likely than 67%. Even with the odds of -200, I'll slam this line all day.

Buffalo Bills Win Totals Over/Under Odds (o11.5 -135, u11.5 +120)

In 2021, the Bills were often regarded as a top 5 team. Despite this, they found themselves losing winnable games to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and New England. Buffalo finished the season 11-7.

Even though Buffalo is favored to win 16 games, Buffalo went 9-5 in the 14 games they were favored last season. Buffalo's winning percentage of .643 in games they were favored in ranked 7th among the 11 teams favored in at least 10 games last season.

I want to believe that Buffalo goes over 11.5 wins, but I don't think this team will need to win 12 games to win their division. I could see Buffalo sitting their starters come week 18 on top of losing semi-meaningless games to NFC teams like the Rams, Vikings, or Packers.

Lean over if you must, but I think I'll sit this one out.

Buffalo Bills to Make the Playoffs Odds (Yes -455, No +450)

The only way Buffalo misses the playoffs is if something goes terribly wrong. At -455, this implies buffalo has an 82% chance of making the playoffs. Barring anything crazy, this number is a bit too low, but not something worth betting on.

Favorite Buffalo Bills Futures Bet

Buffalo Bills to win the Division -200

Let's take a look at each team in the AFC East.

Starting with the Jets, we'll see a team that has very little chance of winning the division. New York's win total line sits at 5.5, which is the 3rd fewest of any NFL team this year. Since 2009, there have been 35 teams with a win total of 5.5 wins or fewer. None of them have won their division. The last time a team with a win total line of 5.5 or fewer won their Division was the 2008 Miami Dolphins. The Jets need to be a statistical anomaly to win the division.

The New England Patriots are now 3 seasons removed from their last division title. Prior to that, New England won 11 straight division titles and 17 in the last 19 seasons. As long as Bill Belichick is the coach, it's possible that New England returns to form. That said, Buffalo is, on paper, a better team and has an easier strength of schedule (12th vs 16th). The Patriots are favored in 8.5 games to Buffaloâ€™s 11.5.

Miami is, in my opinion, Buffalo's greatest threat to win the division. With Tyreek Hill, a plethora of new running backs, and rookie Head Coach Mike McDaniel. My concerns are as follows: since 2000, rookie head coaches have had a .440 win percentage. Even if Mike McDaniel is somehow a super-coach, Tua needs to play significantly better than he has the previous two seasons. Like New England, Miami's win total line is 8.5 wins.

Buffalo has far fewer question marks and far more reason to win the division than any other team in the AFC East. Truthfully, -200 feels like a steal as I'd project the actual odds to be around -275.

Matthew Freedman's Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>

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Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, & Best Bet (2022)

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