Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick (2021)

With not only the AFC East but playoff positioning up for grabs on Sunday, the Bills and Patriots will meet for the second time in two weeks, this time in New England. For the Patriots, a win would secure the division as the young Bills look to tie things up with two weeks left to play.

Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and see where the value lies.

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Details

• Opening Line: Patriots -1, O/U 44.5
• Current Line: Patriots -2.5, O/U 43.5
• Last meeting: December 6, 2021, Patriots 14, Bills 10

Overview

Once seemingly in control of the AFC, the Bills have been on a slide since mid-November. Losing three of their last five, their two wins have come over New Orleans and Carolina. Their three losses have come against the only teams during that span with winning records.

For the Patriots, seven straight wins were halted last week in Indianapolis, as they couldn’t overcome a 20-point third-quarter deficit despite rallying late. Still, the Patriots won the yardage battle by a net +90, including throwing for 284 yards as Mac Jones was more than adequate.

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Trends

• Bills are 0-4 ATS in L4 games following a win
• Over is 5-0 in Bills L5 games as a road underdog
• Over is 4-0 in Patriots L4 home games

Bottom Line

In a game that will be in the NFL record books, these two played back on December 12th when the Patriots won despite throwing just two passes. On the day, the Patriots ran for 222 yards and dominated on defense, and I don’t see how things go much differently this time in Foxboro.

Despite their backs being against the wall and what’s turning into a trendy underdog pick, I like for the Patriots to handle business in this one on their way to winning yet another AFC East title.

Pick: Patriots -2.5

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