Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Odds & Game Picks (2021)
I want to offer my condolences to anyone who had the Buffalo Bills in their survivor pools last week. In a week filled with shocking upsets, no result was more surprising than Buffalo’s 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Now, the Bills have to bounce back against a similarly woeful opponent, the New York Jets, who nearly pulled off the most ultimate backdoor cover last Thursday night against Indianapolis.
The Jets have pulled off a couple of big upsets as home underdogs. So are we in store for another surprise at MetLife Stadium? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: Buffalo -13
- Current line: Buffalo -12
- Total: 47.5
Uh oh, Buffalo?
To say the Bills played down to the Jaguars last week would probably be an understatement. Buffalo accrued just 301 total yards, committed 12 penalties for 118 yards, and turned the ball over three times. It was a textbook example of how to lose straight up as two-touchdown favorites.
Josh Allen and the Bills offense are getting the same defensive treatment the Kansas City Chiefs are getting. Opposing defenses are dropping two safeties back to prevent big plays. They’re inviting Buffalo to drive the ball methodically downfield via the running game and short passes. But just like the Chiefs, the Bills haven’t shown the patience to take what the defense is giving them.
Simply put, the Bills need to be more balanced offensively. Buffalo attempted 47 passes and just 14 rushes last week against Jacksonville, despite averaging 5.1 yards per rush and never trailing by more than three points. It’s inexplicable play-calling by Brian Daboll, who needs to dial back his aggressiveness.
If the Bills can make opponents respect their running game, they should be able to snap out of this funk quickly. The problem is Buffalo’s offensive line has struggled to win in run blocking, as it ranks 27th in power success rate and 19th in stuff rate.
Defensively, the Bills are a juggernaut. Buffalo is first in defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA and ranks third in run defense DVOA. It’s worth noting that this unit has played the weakest schedule of opposing offenses in the league, per FootballOutsiders. However, this unit has enough talent at all three levels to help propel the Bills to the Super Bowl.
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Can the Jets pull another upset at home?
MetLife Stadium has been a house of horrors for big road favorites, as the Jets have knocked off both the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals as double-digit underdogs. Unfortunately for them, they’re 0-6 otherwise.
Last week’s 45-30 final score might suggest New York’s game against the Indianapolis Colts was close last week. But don’t be mistaken, the Jets were down 42-10 at one point. The game essentially ended after Mike White exited the game in the first quarter with a forearm injury.
The Jets will turn back to the wondrous White this week as rookie Zach Wilson continues to recover from a knee injury. White once again looked pretty good in limited action Thursday night, and he might be another strong performance away from sparking a full-fledged QB controversy.
New York’s offense is still pretty lousy, as it ranks 27th in offensive DVOA, but the unit has picked things up in its last two games. The Jets have scored 64 points in its previous two games, and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur appears to be figuring things out. This unit still lacks talent, but rookie tailback Michael Carter and receiver Elijah Moore should give Jets fans hope.
Defensively, New York remains a mess. The Jets rank dead-last in defensive DVOA, 30th in pass defense, and 31st in run defense. The Jets have pieces in the front seven, such as Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins, but the secondary is miserable. New York has just one interception on the entire season, and it was made by edge rusher Shaq Thompson. The Jets also have a measly five takeaways on the season.
Bottom Line
This feels like a bounce-back spot for Buffalo’s offense, as the Jets offer no resistance defensively. While the Mike White mojo scares me a bit, I suspect Buffalo’s defense will shut down New York’s short passing attack, and the Jets can’t run the ball to take any pressure off White.
I would wait until Saturday or Sunday to make a wager on this game, as I suspect we could see more money flowing in on the Jets, who have the benefit of a long week to prepare. It’s not a game I love, but it’s Buffalo or nothing for me.
Pick: Lean Bills -12, wait to see how far the line goes down
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.