Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Game Pick (2021)
If you read my preview last week of the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills game, then the Bills are probably dead to you after Monday night. We backed the Bills and got burnt badly.
So here I am again, writing about the Bills in what should be the marquee matchup of Week 14 against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Is this a buy-low spot on Buffalo? Or will Brady continue his dominance against Buffalo in Tampa? Let’s break it down:
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Details
- Opening line: Tampa Bay -4
- Current line: Tampa Bay -3.5
- Total: 53.5
Buffalo needs a bounce back
I won’t get into excruciating detail about Buffalo’s Monday night loss to New England. But I will say this. Buffalo’s coaching staff cost them that game.
From New England’s opening drive, you could tell the Pats didn’t trust rookie quarterback Mac Jones throwing in 50 mile per hour winds. Yet, the Bills were too slow to realize that. Buffalo also failed to emphasize gap responsibility. On multiple occasions, Buffalo’s linebackers over-pursued, allowing easy cutback lanes for Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. In fact, Buffalo’s over-aggressiveness is exactly what led to Harris’ 67-yard touchdown run in the first quarter.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll also called a horrific game. While the weather called for more running than usual, Daboll set his team back with too many run calls on early downs. It was a miserable gameplan that was horribly executed.
Also, what was Sean McDermott doing challenging a quarterback sneak? I just can’t let that one go.
The Bills are still a really good team that ranks third in overall DVOA. However, this team has some warts. First of all, the Bills rank 21st in rushing DVOA. Buffalo’s offensive line actually ranks 11th in the league in adjusted line yards. But Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and Matt Breida simply haven’t taken advantage, as Buffalo ranks 17th in second-level yards from tailbacks and 18th in open field yards.
The good news for Buffalo is they won’t have to worry about running the ball against a Buccaneers front seven that’s pretty dominant against the run. The key will be whether Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Buffalo’s passing game can get it going against Tampa’s secondary.
Defensively, Buffalo still rates as tops in the league, according to DVOA, but I have some concerns. Buffalo’s linebackers played really poorly against the Patriots. And New England didn’t even attempt to exploit Buffalo’s secondary in its first game without star cornerback Tre’Davious White. You can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to throw the ball a few more times than Mac Jones did.
Buccaneers are back on track
Remember when there were concerns about the Buccaneers a month ago after they lost two in a row to New Orleans and Washington? Tampa has righted the pirate ship since then, rattling off three straight impressive wins.
While Tampa isn’t in first place in the NFC at the moment, the Bucs feel like the best team in football. They rank first in overall DVOA and are in the top 10 in the league on both offense and defense.
Tom Brady has shown no signs of aging and Tampa remains elite offensively, ranking first in passing DVOA and second in rushing DVOA. Brady and his skill weapons get all of the love, but Tampa’s offensive line deserves a ton of praise too. The Bucs rank first in adjusted line yards, first in power success rank, third in stuff rank, and have given up the fewest sacks in the league.
Defensively, Tampa is still really good, but it hasn’t been quite as elite as it was a year ago. The Buccaneers rank eighth in defensive DVOA and actually rank worse against the run than the pass according to DVOA. Tampa Bay is still dealing with injuries to its secondary, as Jamel Dean and Jordan Whitehead both missed practice Wednesday. Vita Vea is also dealing with a knee injury.
It will be interesting to see how Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles schemes against Buffalo’s offense, which has pretty much been one-dimensional. The Buccaneers blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, but will Bowles want to risk leaving his defensive backs on an island against Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders? And will Tampa be able to get home against a Bills offensive line that’s allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the league?
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Bottom Line
The key to NFL betting is having a bad memory. In a week-to-week league filled with overreactions from Monday to Saturday, you have to be able to file away what you saw the Sunday before. And while it’s painful, that’s exactly what I’m doing here.
Buffalo matches up well with Tampa Bay offensively and should be able to keep up with them on the scoreboard. Tampa’s defensive strength is in its front seven, but the Bills won’t be relying much on their running game anyways. Against Tampa’s elite pass rushers, I’d expect Allen to get the ball out quickly and let his talented receivers win one-on-one battles in space.
I also love the spot for the Bills, who desperately need a win for playoff positioning and confidence purposes.
I know it’s painful after last week, but this feels like a buy-low spot on the Bills. I could also see this being a shootout, as Brady could have all day to throw against a shorthanded Buffalo secondary. And I’m not sold that Tampa’s defense is as dominant as it was a year ago.
The picks: Buffalo +3.5 (don’t play below +3), lean over 53.5
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