Cardinals vs. Texans: NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Cardinals vs. Texans.
NFL Betting Primer: Cardinals vs. Texans
Houston Texans (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites (0-3 ATS as a favorite this season) and just 1-2 straight up including losses at both Atlanta and Carolina, when they were small road favorites.
But they have been on the better teams at home this season. 3-1 at home this season (2-2 ATS). Although they should be 3-1 ATS had they not lost their kicker in their thrilling win over Tampa Bay.
Overall, Houston is 5-2 versus the spread over their last seven games. Their last 3 wins have been by 7 or fewer points.
C.J. Stroud continues to check off all the boxes, and there's no reason to think he will slow down versus a porous Arizona Cardinals defense. Arizona's defense ranks 31st in total DVOA, 31st versus the pass and 28th versus the run. Their defense has been particularly bad on the road. The team is 0-5 away from Arizona this season.
The Texans have gone under in four of their last 7 games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game (aside from Tampa Bay). When faced with high-scoring offenses, the games have been shooting out.
Insert the Arizona Cardinals offense with Kyler Murray at the helm, and we are met with another over situation. With Murray back last week, the 44 total went over at 48 points scored in ARI/ATL.
I like the over in this spot. Two offenses are on the rise, with two defenses that cannot get out of their way.
Murray is 5-8 as a starter dating back to last season, going 7-6 ATS. And as previously mentioned, the Texans have been bad bets as favorites this season, despite how great Stroud has played.
Needless to say, if Arizona was playing anybody else but Houston, Murray would be getting more love after his miraculous first game back from his torn ACL injury. I don't think the return of Murray and him playing the way he did - flashed a rusher is being considered enough in this line.
The Texans will likely come away with the win, but I'd hardly feel confident that it's by more than a field goal. Note that Arizona has gone 5-5 ATS on the year despite a horrible defense, rotating QB room, and the 2nd-most difficult schedule faced in the NFC.
My Picks:
- Cardinals +5
- Over 48.5
My Props
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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