Champions League Matchday 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/29)
Matchday five in the Champions League wraps up today, and this is a very important day as teams try desperately to punch their tickets to the knockout stage. Below I've narrowed in on three matches from the eight-game slate and locked in a bet for each. Let's dive into where I'm laying my money on the European continent today.
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Today's Champions League Best Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Soccer Betting Record 2023-2024: 33-30 (-3.07 units)
Sevilla (+185) vs. PSV Eindhoven (+140), DRAW (+265) | 2.5 (-160/+130)
The hosts will need some help if they want to stay alive and make it to the knockout stage. They've managed just two points in Group B, which finds them in last place, trailing Arsenal (9 points), PSV (5), and Lens (5). This is one of the two earlier matches, getting underway at 12:45 p.m. ET from Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán in Sevilla, Spain.
This simply hasn't been Sevilla's year. They've been atrocious on both the domestic front (2-6-5) and the continental one (0-2-2). Typically a strong defensive squad, that hasn't been the case this season as they're dead last in Group B in terms of xGA with a mark of 7.3. They've conceded seven goals while scoring just four.
That's not a great recipe against this dynamic Eindhoven offense. While they've only managed four goals in the UCL, I think they're due to break out at some point. The Dutch side is a perfect 13-0-0 in the Eredivisie, boasting a goal differential of +43 (48 goals to 5 goals allowed). With Arsenal on the horizon, Eindhoven's best opportunity to secure a spot in the Round of 16 will be with a win today, so I think they lay it on this underwhelming Sevilla team.
Bet: PSV Eindhoven Moneyline (+140)
Braga (+105) vs. Union Berlin (+260), DRAW (+270) | 2.5 (-140/+110)
Both Braga (3 points) and Union Berlin (1) are all but eliminated in Group C as they look up at Real Madrid (12 points) and Napoli (7). However, this should still be an interesting matchup from a betting standpoint. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga, Portugal.
Getting a plus-money payout with Braga at home feels like a gift. While it hasn't been a successful season in the UCL, they have a chance to pick up some easy points in front of their home crowd. This is a Braga fanbase that has been accustomed to a ton of scoring this year. On the domestic front, they lead the Portuguese Primeira Liga with 30 goals.
The Portuguese side will be tasked with hosting a Union Berlin team that's in shambles. They're just 0-1-3 in the Champions League while posting a 2-1-9 mark in the Bundesliga. There's a chance that Union will get relegated this season in Germany. They've managed just 12 goals while conceding 27. Ultimately, I can't see Braga having a letdown against a team that's winless over its last 15 matches (0-2-13). Let's ride with the home team in this spot.
Bet: Braga Moneyline (+105)
Bayern Munich (-425) vs. FC Copenhagen (+1000), DRAW (+600) | 3.5 (-105/-120)
Unlike Union Berlin, Bayern Munich is having a great season on every front. They sit comfortably atop Group A at 4-0-0, looking down on FC Copenhagen (4 points), Galatasaray (4), and Manchester United (3). Bayern hosts Copenhagen this afternoon, and this one is slated for 3:00 p.m. ET from Allianz Arena in Munchen, Germany.
I'm not going to overthink this one, I'm laying the two goals with Bayern. They've been incredible in both the Bundesliga and Champions League, scoring a combined 55 goals over 16 matches (3.43 GPG). That's roughly about the pace of their averaging scoring through four UCL games, where they've netted 11 goals over four contests (2.75). To put into context how the oddsmakers are expecting Bayern's offense to fare, they've listed three players where you'd have to lay juice for them to score today (Kane -275, Tel -135, Choupo-Moting -120).
They're paired up with a Copenhagen club that hasn't been sharp recently, going just 0-1-1 over their last two matches with one goal scored. That's not the momentum that you want to be carrying when heading into the hostile Allianz Arena. I think we see the German giants lay it on the visitors today.
Bet: Bayern Munich -2.0 (+100)
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