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Champions League Matchday 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (12/12)

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The final matchday in the Champions League is upon us, and there are still four spots up for grabs to advance to the knockout stage. If you’re looking for specifics, here is an article on each group’s scenarios.

From a sports betting perspective, I’ve narrowed in on these three plays for today’s action across Europe:

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Today’s Champions League Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Soccer Betting Record 2023-2024: 36-39 (-8.65 units)

Sevilla (+300) vs. Lens (-105), DRAW (+260) | O/U 2.5 (-105/-120)

Group B is just about finalized at this point, and we know that the top two spots belong to Arsenal (12 points) and PSV Eindhoven (eight). These two bottom feeders will battle it out for a spot in the Europa League, where Lens will stay alive with a win or draw. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET from Stade Félix Bollaert-Delélis in Lens, France. 

These two sides played to a 1-1 draw in Spain in September. I think Lens does enough to register the three points at home this time, so I’ll play them on the moneyline. Dating back to September, the French club has gone unbeaten at its home ground, going 5-2-0 across all competitions. 

Meanwhile, Sevilla is putting together a pretty ugly season under Diego Alonso. His squad is just 2-7-6 domestically while adding an 0-2-3 mark in the UCL. The defense has been a severe issue this term, as Alonso’s team has conceded 10 goals. They have the highest expected goals against (xGA) mark in the group at 9.4, nearly two full goals more than Eindhoven (7.6). With Lens having a home-field advantage, I think they’ll do enough to secure the outright win. 

Bet: Lens Moneyline (-105)

Galatasaray (+170) vs. FC Copenhagen (+145), DRAW (+275) | O/U 2.5 (-155/+125)

Things are far from settled in Group A, as only Bayern Munich (13 points) has punched a ticket to the next round. All three teams below the German giant can still advance. Those clubs are Copenhagen (five points), Galatasaray (five) and Manchester United (four). This mid-table battle is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark. 

I’m not sure who will come away victorious in this match, but I do expect some goals to be scored. I’m playing the alternative over at 3.0 goals. These two sides squared off back in September, when they played to a 2-2 draw in Turkey. 

There has been no shortage of goals in Group A, as these two clubs combined for 17 total goals. Copenhagen comes in with an expected goals (xG) rate of 6.3, while Galatasaray sits at 8.4. Their xGA marks are 7.3 and 8.9, respectively.

Finally, on the domestic front, Copenhagen leads their table in scoring with 34 goals over 17 matches (2.0 GPG), while Galatasaray is in second in scoring (31 goals) over 15 matches (2.1 GPG). I think we see these sides lean into their strengths, which will ultimately turn this game into a higher-scoring affair. 

Bet: Alternative Over 3.0 (+105)

Braga (+500) vs. Napoli (-205), DRAW (+390) | 3.5 (+125/-155)

The Italian side can play pretty conservatively today and still make it through to the next round. They simply need to win, draw or lose by just one goal, meaning Braga needs to secure a multi-goal victory to advance. This Group C tilt is slated for 3:00 p.m. ET from Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli, Italy. 

While Napoli can just sit back in a defensive shell, I don’t think that’s how they’ll opt to play this match. Considering they’re in front of their home crowd, I think Walter Mazzarri’s side will look to take advantage of a pedestrian Braga defense. The Blues are tasked with scoring against the worst defense in Group C, a Braga unit that has surrendered 10 goals. They have the second-highest xGA rate, entering at 8.5. 

Meanwhile, Napoli’s offense has been solid enough for me to take a flier on them stretching this lead out to multiple goals. They’ve scored eight goals in five matches on the continental front (1.6 GPG) while racking up 26 goals over 15 domestic competitions (1.7 GPG). I expect Napoli to get out to an early lead, which should supply late opportunities to score against a desperate Braga team. 

Bet: Napoli -1.0 (-140)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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