Champions League Quarterfinal Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
The Champions League quarterfinal round is upon us, and we have four thrilling matchups on the schedule. Below, I’ll break down three of these first-leg matches and let you know where I’m laying my money on the pitch for this European action.
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Champions League Quarter-Final Preview & Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arsenal (-135) vs. Bayern Munich (+360), DRAW (+310) | O/U 2.5 (-140/+115)
The Gunners are back in the quarter-final round of the UCL for the first time since the 2009-2010 campaign, meaning Mikel Arteta is officially in uncharted territory. As for Bayern, they’re a mainstay to the tournament’s later stages, but they’ll be looking to break through to the semi-finals for the first time since they won the entire league back in 2019-2020. This match is scheduled for Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Emirates Stadium in London.
These are two very skillful offenses, so I will play the over on Tuesday afternoon. Arsenal has scored 17 goals over their eight matches (2.1 GPG), while Bayern has netted 15 goals over the same stretch (1.9 GPG). Bayern also boasts the league’s top scorer, Harry Kane, who has amassed six goals in the tournament.
Ultimately, I’m most nervous about the German side’s defense. They’ve been extremely shaky at times on the domestic front, and this will obviously be a huge step up in competition from their Bundesliga foes. If Arsenal takes an early lead, which I think is likely, look for Bayern to really push their attack. And, as I mentioned, they’re a pretty capable offense with players like Kane, Jamal Musiala (two UCL goals) and Kingsley Coman (two UCL goals). Let’s play the over in London on Tuesday.
Bet: Over 2.5 (-140)
Real Madrid (+185) vs. Manchester City (+155), DRAW (+240) | 2.5 (-130/+105)
We certainly get spoiled with some great quarter-final draws each year, but this heavyweight tilt between 14-time champion Real Madrid and defending champion Manchester City should be electric. The first leg kicks off on Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid.
First off, the betting nerd inside of me has to point out that Madrid is an underdog at home. Honestly, I think City is the only team in the world that would make the Spanish giant a home underdog. Perhaps a small part of the odds are due to the prior head-to-head meetings from last year’s semi-final tie, where the two sides split in Madrid (1-1), but City smoked them 4-0 back at the Etihad.
This will be the third straight year that these clubs meet, and the 1-1 draw was the only match that didn’t reach at least three goals. The 2022 legs included a 4-3 home win for City before Real Madrid bounced back and won 3-1 at home. Circling back on this season, Pep Guardiola’s offense has been the best in the Champions League, racking up 24 goals over eight matches (3.0 GPG). Real Madrid is third, netting 18 goals (2.3 GPG). Ultimately, this game has so much offensive talent that the over has to be the play. Let’s lay the juice with the over in Spain on Tuesday.
Bet: Over 2.5 (-130)
Paris Saint-Germain (+100) vs. Barcelona (+265), DRAW (+280) | 2.5 (-150/+120)
There are two matches on Wednesday: PSG hosts Barcelona, and Dortmund travels to Spain to take on Atletico Madrid. I’ll focus on the former, which kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET from Parc des Princes in Paris.
This will already be PSG’s third match of April, as they’re currently juggling Ligue 1, Coupe de France and Champions League schedules. As for Barcelona, they’re extremely well-rested, having not played since a 1-0 domestic victory over Las Palmas at home on March 30th. The victory marked Barca’s fourth straight win, and they’ve now covered a +0.5-goal line in 11 straight matches across all competitions. I’ll take the half-goal on Wednesday with Barcelona.
There are a ton of experienced players in this match, but one of the main reasons I believe Barcelona can at least pull out a draw on Wednesday is because of the veteran players on their roster. They have two bonafide scorers up front in Robert Lewandowski (three UCL goals) and João Félix (three UCL goals). Meanwhile, of the eight remaining teams in this competition, PSG, alongside Man City, have conceded the most goals over their eight matches (nine). So, with a rest advantage and their skilled scorers up front, I expect Barcelona to cover this +0.5-goal line.
Bet: Barcelona +0.5 (-125)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: