Champions League Round of 16 Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
By the time Wednesday evening arrives, four tickets to the Champions League quarter-final round will be secured. Below, I’ll break down three of the four matches on Tuesday and Wednesday from a betting angle, letting you know where I’m laying my money on the pitch this week.
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Champions League Round of 16 Preview & Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bayern Munich (-370) vs. Lazio (+950), DRAW (+500) | O/U 3.5 (+140/-175)
It hasn’t been a great run for Bayern recently, as they’re trailing 1-0 in this UCL aggregate while also chasing Bayer Leverkusen by 10 points in the Bundesliga. As for Lazio, they’ll be looking to lean on their strong defense to push through to the quarter-final round as they make the trip to the hostile Allianz Arena. Kickoff is scheduled for Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from München, Germany.
Bayern’s a sizable favorite to win this match (-370), and they’re also -285 to advance to the quarter-finals. Lazio is +220 to advance, per DraftKings Sportsbook. I have to agree with the sportsbooks on this one; I see Bayern completing the comeback and pushing ahead to the next round. I think the Bavarians get the job done in the first 90 minutes, so I’ll lay the 1.5 goals in this spot.
Mainly, it’s Lazio’s road form that interests me in the hosts. They posted a mediocre 1-1-1 record on the road during the group stage, getting out-scored 5-3. That includes a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Atletico Madrid, who was the fiercest competition in Group E. Meanwhile, Bayern is undefeated at home in its last 13 UCL matches, going 10-3-0. They have a stable of scorers, led by Harry Kane, and I expect this veteran group to figure things out and advance.
Bet: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-130)
Real Sociedad (+155) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (+180), DRAW (+250) | O/U 2.5 (-110/-115)
The other Tuesday match pits Real Sociedad against PSG, as the former will be looking to erase a two-goal deficit (2-0) as the aggregate shifts back to Spain. This contest is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET From Reale Arena in San Sebastián, Spain.
I’m looking at the total in this contest, and I think we’re in for an absolute goal-fest. I’m locking in the over. Real Sociedad has had issues keeping the ball out of their own net recently, where they’ve conceded 10 goals over their last five matches across all competitions (2.0 GA/G). Their task is slowing down one of the best offenses on the continent, PSG. The Parisians have amassed 54 goals this campaign on the domestic front (10 more than the next-closest team), and they’ve netted 11 goals over seven UCL matches so far. Plus, we have to factor in that the Spanish side will have to push the pace and take risks, potentially leaving transition chances for the visitors.
As for Sociedad’s offense, they’re a pedestrian unit, averaging just 1.0 goal per game during this UCL term. With a home-pitch advantage in the mix, I expect them to score at least once on Tuesday afternoon. They’ll have a well-rested Mikel Oyarzabal, who leads the team in La Liga scoring (eight goals) and has two tallies in the Champions League this campaign. Let’s take a flier on the over.
Bet: Over 2.5 (-110)
Real Madrid (-180) vs. RB Leipzig (+450), DRAW (+360) | O/U 3.5 (+130/-160)
The 14-time UCL champions Real Madrid are looking to make another run this term, and they enter the second leg of this Round of 16 tie with a 1-0 lead over RB Leipzig. The German side managed nine shots on goal in the first leg, but their dynamic offense couldn’t break through. Kickoff for Wednesday’s second leg is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain.
Jude Bellingham will be back in the lineup after missing the first leg of this aggregate. Interestingly, it was his replacement, Brahim DÃaz, who netted an incredible 48th-minute goal to give Real Madrid the road victory. Bellingham has registered four goals this UCL campaign, which sets the pace for the second-highest-scoring team in the Champions League this year (17 total goals).
Los Blancos’ offense is simply too dominant not to tally a goal or two on Wednesday. So, I’m locking in the alternate over at 3.0 goals, giving us a push to fall back on. Leipzig loves the run-and-gun style of play, which often leads to higher-scoring matches. They saw 23 combined goals over their six group-stage matches, which equates to 3.8 goals per match. As noted, Die Roten Bullen racked up nine shots on goal in the first leg of this aggregate. I think this match gets loose, and it’s only a matter of time before Loïs Openda (four UCL goals) and this Leipzig offense breakthrough. I’m playing the over at 3.0 goals.
Bet: Over 3.0 (-130)
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