Champions League Semi-Final Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
Just four teams remain in the Champions League, and the action resumes on Tuesday as the semi-final round kicks off. Bayern Munich hosts Real Madrid on Tuesday, while Paris Saint-Germain makes the trek to Germany to take on Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday.
Let’s dive into the odds, how each team got here, and wrap up with my favorite bet for each first-leg match.
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Champions League Semi-Final Preview & Best Bets (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bayern Munich (+130) vs. Real Madrid (+205), DRAW (+260) | O/U 2.5 (-145/+120)
Fourteen-time European champion Real Madrid hits the road for the first leg of the semi-final, where they’ll take on six-time winner Bayern Munich. Kickoff is set for Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Allianz Arena in Munchen, Germany.
It’s a quick turnaround for Carlo Ancelotti and his Blancos, as they just fended off Real Sociedad in a 1-0 victory on Friday. However, the good news is that the manager was able to rest some of his stars heading into the first leg of this Champions League match. At full strength, I think this Madrid squad has more overall talent than the German giant, so I will take a flier on them. But, with Bayern going 12-3-0 over their last 15 European home matches, I’d like some built-in insurance, so I’ll take the “draw no bet†prop in this contest.
Real Madrid is undefeated over its last 16 matches in all competitions, going 12-4-0 over the sample size. You have to go all the way back to Jan. 18 to find their last defeat, which came in a Copa del Rey match against Atletico (4-2). That’s 16 straight matches that this prop would’ve hypothetically cashed. Now we’re getting a plus-money payout with it? Sign me up.
Let’s back this high-octane Blancos offense (2.2 goals per UCL match) to at least come away with a draw (which we’d push on), if not win outright.
Bet: Real Madrid Moneyline, Draw No Bet (+120)
Borussia Dortmund (+175) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (+145), DRAW (+270) | 3.5 (+125/-155)
Wednesday’s contest features a rematch of an early Group F drawing, where Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain square off. The first leg is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, Germany.
This will be the third meeting between the two sides this UCL campaign, and PSG had the edge, winning 2-0 at home on Sept. 19, while managing a 1-1 draw on the road in mid-December. Regardless of the prior history, the oddsmakers still set an inflated total of 3.5 goals. I will knock off some of the juice and play the alternate under at 3.0 goals (-105).
So much of PSG’s offense runs through Kylian Mbappe, who leads the team with 26 goals over 28 domestic matches. He’s racked up eight goals over 10 UCL matches this term. However, the star was blanked during his trip to Signal Iduna Park in the first meeting, leading to the 1-1 draw. While everyone wants to paint these squads as offensive-minded juggernauts, which you can probably make that case, they both have respectable defenses. Dortmund has conceded just nine times over 10 Champions League matches. With the German side having the home-pitch advantage in the first leg, I think they’ll keep things tight defensively and suppress the visitors’ offense. Let’s play the under in Dortmund on Wednesday.
Bet: Alt Under 3.0 (-105)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: