Charles Schwab Challenge: PGA Best Weekend Picks (2024)

Despite weather conditions forcing a premature stop for the final groups in Round 2, we’re starting to see the leaderboard take shape at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Colonial Country Club’s extensive restoration effort this past year have challenged many golfers in the field, although a few have dominated the first two rounds thus far.

The current leader, Davis Riley, sits at 10-under-par, three strokes ahead of Hayden Buckley and four strokes ahead of Sungjae Im and Keegan Bradley. Riley has recorded one win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in 2023, but in solo play, his closest chance to grab an outright win fell short in a playoff against Sam Burns at Valspar in 2022. Scottie Scheffler’s 5-under-par outing in Round 2 took the World No. 1 from +2 to 3-under-par, putting him at T14 on the leaderboard.

Despite the seven-stroke lead that Riley maintains, oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook are still giving massive amounts of respect to Scheffler, who is +450 to win outright heading into Saturday’s third round. Riley also is available at +450 odds, followed by Sungjae Im at +850 and Keegan Bradley at +900. 2023 Open Championship winner, Brian Harman, rounds out the top five at +1200, sitting at 5-under-par after a hot start on Thursday.

In this article, we’re targeting golfers to wager in the outright winner market ahead of Round 3 and Round 4 this weekend. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay_ for more free plays and PGA Tour best bets throughout the weekend.

Charles Schwab Challenge: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are 0.50u and 0.25u, or 0.5% and 0.25% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Scottie Scheffler (+450)

Despite the ridiculous +450 odds sitting seven strokes behind current leader, Davis Riley, snagging Scottie Scheffler at +450 is nearly double the value he opened at ahead of Round 1. Scheffler’s 5-under-par outing in Round 2 could’ve easily been 7-under-par or even lower, missing several long birdie putts by a couple of inches.

It’s a home event for Scheffler, located in Fort Worth, Texas, plus he’s top-five in all strokes gained metrics this season, excluding putting. If he goes 5-under-par or better on Saturday and Sunday, there’s no doubt Scheffler will be in contention for his fifth outright win since March 10th. Betting on the best golfer in the world is never a bad investment, especially when he was as low as +260 before a 2-over-par finish in Round 1.

Davis Riley (+450)

Since joining the PGA Tour in 2022, Davis Riley has a win at Zurich, but is still seeking his first solo win at a PGA Tour event. He has yet to record a single top-ten finish in 2024, but going 4-under-par and 6-under-par in the first two rounds at Colonial is likely going to change that stat.

Investing in Riley may feel a bit dangerous due to the lack of production this year, but he’s ranked fifth in Round 4 scoring average and 12th in final round performance. This indicates that even if the field closes the gap on Saturday, the 27-year-old Mississippi native should pull through with a strong finish on Sunday. +450 odds on a golfer with a three-stroke lead is pretty rare heading into Round 3, so a half unit wager goes a long way.

Sungjae Im (+850)

Sungjae Im was one of the public’s favorite bets at Colonial this week. A T15 and T10 finish in the past four appearances at the Charles Schwab Challenge are encouraging, although the other two outings resulted in missing the cut.

Clearly, we’re seeing Im trending up this year, going from even par in Round 1, to 6-under-par in Round 2. Ranked 31st in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 23rd in going for the green – birdie or better percentage, the South Korean native is also top-30 in sand save rate. His game can be volatile, but Im is settling into a rhythm at a course he’s fared well at in recent years, plus, he’s due for an outright win.

Im’s last win came at the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open, so if he can split the difference and go 3-under-par or lower in the final two rounds, we’ll see him in one of the final groups on Sunday afternoon. A 0.25 unit wager returns enough value on Im at this price.

Keegan Bradley (+900)

Playing alongside Scottie Scheffler in the first two rounds took the spotlight off of Keegan Bradley, but the Vermont native shouldn’t be slept on too hard. After all, he has six career wins on the PGA Tour, including two last season.

Ranked 26th strokes gained: tee-to-green and 18th strokes gained: approaching the green, Bradley also ranks inside the top-20 for total driving. His putter is the weakness in his game, but at 9-1 odds, sitting at four strokes behind Riley, who could implode during the final two rounds, is great value to acquire. Another 0.25 unit wager is sufficient for Bradley’s outright odds.

Denny McCarthy (+3500)

We’re digging into the longshot odds at 35-1 and taking a chance on a golfer who has had multiple runner-up finishes during his PGA Tour career. Denny McCarthy blew a chance to beat Akshay Bhatia during a playoff at the Valero Texas Open on April 7th, sending his approach shot into the water.

McCarthy missed the cut at Valhalla last week during the PGA Championship but previously recorded a T6 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship, which was his second top-ten finish of the season. Ranked fourth strokes gained: putting and scrambling, plus 10th in sand save rate and top-50 in driving accuracy, we could definitely see McCarthy make a run at the top of the leaderboard in the final two rounds.

35-1 is too enticing to pass on, especially only seven strokes back from Riley alongside Scheffler in a logjam at T14. McCarthy still has four holes to finish once Round 2 resumes to lower his score, so let’s strike now while the value is intact. A 0.10 unit sprinkle still returns 3.5 units if McCarthy goes on a run, so don’t miss out on getting in on this action.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.