Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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After failing to cover as big home favorites last week, the Cleveland Browns are facing a similar situation in Week 3. The 1-1 Browns are listed as 7-point favorites over the 1-1 Chicago Bears, who enter the game with big questions at quarterback.

Will the Browns win by more than a touchdown against the Bears? Or will Chicago find a way to keep it close? Let’s break this conference crossover down.

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Details 

• Opening line: Browns -7.5
• Current line: Browns -7
• Total: 45.5

Browns passing game could be a problem

Perhaps it was a hangover spot after a tough loss to Kansas City, but I was surprised that the Browns struggled to dominate the lowly Texans. Part of the reason Cleveland failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites was a lackluster aerial attack.

Cleveland’s passing game can’t catch a break early in the season. The Browns have been without Odell Beckham Jr., through the first two games as he works his way back from an ACL injury. And just as it seems Beckham will be ready to return, the Browns lost their other star receiver.

Jarvis Landry was placed on injured reserve this week and will miss at least three games after suffering an MCL sprain in his left knee. That’s a significant blow, as Landry’s been Mayfield’s most trusted target over the last couple of seasons.

Landry’s injury occurred on Cleveland’s first drive of the game, and his absence was felt right away. Mayfield could only muster 213 yards and one touchdown against a lackluster Texans secondary.

Fortunately for Cleveland, Beckham reportedly has a good chance of returning this weekend. But how much will he play, and how effective will he be? I suspect Beckham will be out there on a limited basis as the Browns ease him back into action.

After Landry left the game, Mayfield relied heavily on tight ends Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant, and David Njoku, who combined for 12 targets on 21 pass attempts. The Browns need more from receivers Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, and Anthony Schwartz against a susceptible Bears secondary.

Cleveland’s offensive identity will always be pounding the rock with tailbacks Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That strategy worked well against Houston, but it might be tougher to find success against a talented Bears front seven. Chicago held Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon to just 69 yards rushing a week after allowing just 74 yards on the ground to the Los Angeles Rams.

Cleveland’s defense had issues stopping Texans quarterback Tyrod Taylor early on. The veteran Taylor completed 10-of-11 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown before exiting the game with a hamstring injury. Cleveland only recorded one sack throughout the game, which is somewhat alarming.

Was Cleveland’s lackluster defensive performance a result of a hangover after losing to the Chiefs? Or was it a worrying sign of things to come? I’m expecting a much better effort against Chicago.

The Justin Fields era is upon us

The Andy Dalton vs. Justin Fields situation has always been confounding. But the Bears announced Wednesday that Fields will make his first career start Sunday in Cleveland after Dalton suffered a left knee injury in the second quarter of last week’s game.

Bears fans got a glimpse of Fields in action, and the Ohio State product wasn’t exactly great. Fields completed six of his 13 pass attempts for 60 yards and threw a bad interception deep in his own territory that kept Cincinnati alive late in the game.

Outside of a touchdown on its opening drive, Chicago’s offense could only muster two field goals against a mediocre Bengals defense. Chicago’s best shot of moving the ball is with a steady ground game led by David Montgomery. Through two games, Chicago has rushed for 257 yards, the eighth-most in the NFL.

The X-factor for Chicago’s offense will be Fields’ mobility. Unlike Dalton, Fields can operate outside of the pocket, something he may have to do against a strong Browns front seven. Fields also opens the door to the read-option, another wrinkle that opponents haven’t seen much tape on to this point.

Chicago mainly took advantage of Cincinnati soiling themselves on the road. The Bengals committed four turnovers on four consecutive drives, including three consecutive interceptions by quarterback Joe Burrow, one of which was a pick-six for Chicago.

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Bottom Line 

The Browns are clearly the better team in this game, but there are some variables that prevent me from feeling great about laying a touchdown with them.

While Beckham’s return helps, the Browns don’t have the weaponry to exploit Chicago’s rebuilding secondary. While there might be no such thing as shutting down Chubb and Hunt, I give Chicago’s front seven as good a chance as anyone.

I’m also expecting Cleveland’s front four led by Myles Garrett to seize control of this game against a sub-par Bears offensive line. Cleveland has held strong against the run in its first two games, and Garrett should feast against Bears tackles Jason Peters and Germain Ifedi.

It’s hard to envision many explosive plays occurring in this game. Fields is the ultimate wild card, and his mobility gives Chicago a much better chance than the statuesque Dalton. But making your first start on the road against Cleveland’s defensive line could be overwhelming.

Throw in expected winds between 14 and 17 miles per hour, and this game has the makings of an under.

Pick: Under 45.5, lean Cleveland at -6.5 or better

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.