Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds and Game Pick (2020)
With the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings both entering this game one game behind Arizona for the NFC’s last playoff spot at 6-7, the loser’s postseason hopes will be all but over. The Bears still have to play the Packers while the Vikings travel to New Orleans next week, so it puts even more of a premium on winning this game.
Can Chicago avenge its earlier loss to Minnesota, or will the Vikings continue their second-half turnaround and win the third of their last four games?
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Details
- Opening Lines: Vikings -3.5; O/U 45.5 on DraftKings
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: November 16, 2020 - Vikings 19, Bears 13
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CHI
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+3.5
-120
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o46.5
-118
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+150
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MIN
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-3.5
-103
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u46.5
-103
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-182
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Bears vs. Vikings >>
Overview
The Bears lost their first meeting to the Vikings, but that seems like ages ago considering it was Nick Foles’ last start at quarterback. In three games since Mitchell Trubisky took back the starting job, the Bears have averaged 30.3 PPG.
Trubisky torched the Texans for 178 yards and three touchdowns in the first half last week, then was content to let the defense dominate in the second half and bring home the win. David Montgomery’s opening-play 80-yard touchdown run helped jump-start Chicago’s offense, and the balance they showed last week has been missing most of the season.
Chicago’s win ended a six-game losing streak, and the team will look to use the momentum from that dominant effort against its division rivals this week.
The Vikings looked lethargic against a Buccaneers team that had the advantage of coming off a bye week. However, though Minnesota lost by 12 points, the outcome could have been vastly different if not for kicker Dan Bailey missing three field goals and an extra point.
One positive that Minnesota can take away from last week is Dalvin Cook running for 102 yards on the league’s top-ranked run defense. That marks the first time any running back has topped 100 yards against Tampa Bay since Week 9 of last season. The loss ended the Vikings’ two-game winning streak, but they have won five of their last seven while facing a much softer schedule in the second half of the season.
Trends
- The over is 7-1 in Minnesota’s last eight home games.
- Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against NFC North opponents.
- The Bears have led at halftime in four of their last five games against the Vikings.
Prop Bet (odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Halftime/Fulltime Result
The trend of Chicago leading Minnesota at the half in four of their last five meetings is too difficult to ignore. However, seeing as I like Minnesota to win the game outright, +700 odds is very enticing for the Bears to lead at halftime, but the Vikings to win the game.
Chicago has a penchant for giving up second-half leads, most recently squandering a 10-point fourth-quarter advantage against Detroit. The Vikings always employ a methodical approach on offense, so it’s even more likely they can wear Chicago down as the game progresses.
Pick: Chicago Bears-Minnesota Vikings +700
Bottom Line
In the first matchup, Chicago did an outstanding job of bottling up Cook and preventing him from hitting the home run play. The Bears held him to a season-low 3.2 YPC on a whopping 30 attempts, but they could not get anything going offensively. Regression to the mean says Cook should be able to break free with more frequency in the rematch. The Bears allow 10 or more yards on 13% of opposing running backs’ carries this season, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. Meanwhile, Vikings running backs have rushed for 10+ yards on 13% of their 359 carries this season, which is the second-best rate.
While he is playing well of late, those that watched Chicago’s game last week saw glimpses of the old Trubisky in the second half. Though there was less riding on each throw with such a big lead, Trubisky was often off-target against Houston, missing late throws he should have made. Either way, Chicago’s offense will likely put pressure on Minnesota to score with more urgency than it did the first time around.
That said, Kirk Cousins should be up for the challenge if he indeed has to throw more. Cousins has a 112.3 passer rating since Week 9, the second-best in the NFL during that span. Meanwhile, Chicago’s usually vaunted defense has allowed a passer rating of 110.8 since Week 9, the NFL’s third-worst mark. If the Bears once again successfully limit Cook, Minnesota’s tandem of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are more of a threat than anyone paired with Allen Robinson II on Chicago’s side.
Bettors should be careful thinking that all is right with Chicago after a win last week. The Bears beat a depleted Texans team that learned they would be without receiver Brandin Cooks just 24 hours before kickoff.
The Vikings’ much-maligned defense played well in Week 14, limiting Tom Brady to just 196 yards passing. If not for shoddy special teams play, they could have upset the Buccaneers. Our view of this game would then be much different. Give me the Vikings in a game that should feature much more offense than their first meeting.
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