6 Chiefs Sports Betting Trends To Know for Super Bowl LIX (2025)

Notable Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Early Line Movement Favors the Chiefs

The Chiefs opened as anywhere from -1 to -1.5-point favorites and were quickly bet to -2 by Sunday night of the Conference Championship round. The early line movement has been the right side in 12 of the last 17 Super Bowls.

Last year, Kansas City opened at either +3 or +2.5 and moved to +1. They then beat the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime.

Andy Reid's Teams Are Dominant With Extended Prep

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is no stranger to navigating the pomp and circumstance that comes with preparing a team for the Super Bowl and all the media obligations that come with it, as he has done so five previous times in his coaching career. And while a Super Bowl is played under much different circumstances than an average regular season or playoff game, Reid's teams with Mahomes as the starting quarterback since 2019 are 30-4 straight up (SU) on any extended prep time during the season.

Small Spreads Are No Problem for Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes has won and covered each of his last eight games in the playoffs as an underdog or as a favorite of less than a field goal. The Chiefs won outright as 1.5-point favorites against the Bills in the AFC Championship and they beat the 49ers as underdogs in last year’s Super Bowl. Before the AFC Championship, Mahomes had covered the last seven games in this spot by an average of 5.9 points per game.

One-score Games Are Right in Kansas City’s Wheelhouse

The low point spread suggests we should be in for another one-possession game decided late in the fourth quarter. That is no problem for Kansas City, who has now won 17 straight one-possession games (including the playoffs), which is the longest streak in NFL history.

Chiefs Are Great in Revenge Spots 

Perhaps this trend is more prevalent when teams play each other for a second time within the same season. Nevertheless, the last time the Chiefs and Eagles met was in Week 11 of 2023, with Philadelphia winning 21-17 on the road. Since 2019, Kansas City is 25-7 SU after losing to its current opponent in its last meeting. That includes a 12-3 SU record in road or neutral-site games.

Kansas City Tends To Play Low-Scoring Games in the Second Half

The second-half over/under in the Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship Game was 25.5 points. It stayed under when the teams combined for 24 points after halftime. Over the last two seasons, the second half under is now 30-10 in Chiefs games (75%), the best mark of any team in the NFL. Before the game against the Bills last Sunday, the second-half under in Kansas City’s games over the last two seasons had been covering by an average of 4.8 points per game.