We get a rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs of Super Bowl LVII that saw Kansas City get the victory in the first of their back-to-back titles.
Kansas City now has the chance to win their Super Bowl third in a row, but the Eagles will have vengeance on their mind and would be known as a dynasty killer if they win. We’ll take an in-depth look at both teams and give you a preview and prediction for Super LIX.
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Best Super Bowl LIX Preview
The Chiefs are playing in what now seems like their annual trip to the Super Bowl. They are on the verge of cementing their dynasty and could become the first team in Super Bowl history to win three straight.
It certainly wasn't easy for Kansas City, and they had to work for that 15-2 regular season record, with 11 of their wins coming by one possession. Injuries played a large part in some of these close games, especially on the offensive side. They lost Marquise Brown in training camp, Rashee Rice was lost for the season and Isiah Pacheco missed a large amount of the year.
The Chiefs relied heavily on first-round rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, traded for DeAndre Hopkins and brought back Kareem Hunt, which shows how amazing Patrick Mahomes is as a leader. The Chiefs’ offense finished eighth in offensive success rate (47.7%) and ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.071). They will have their full complement of offensive weapons and the ability to be balanced in this game.
You could say the defense helped them get to this point. They were one of the league’s elite units and finished the season in the top 10 in several categories, including total yards allowed (ninth), rushing yards allowed (eighth) and points allowed (fourth). With Steve Spagnuolo as the defensive coordinator, they will apply pressure with complex blitz packages. They were fifth in pressure percentage (30.1%).
Kansas City will pressure Philadelphia's offensive line, but can they contain their run game? Saquon Barkley is the biggest difference between this matchup and the last Super Bowl between these two teams, where they had no run game.
Barkley's first season in Philadelphia could not have gone better, as he was the ninth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards and had 15 total touchdowns. He can find a gap and break out and was prone to the big play thanks to his league-leading 46 runs of 10+ yards. It might not matter how good the Chiefs' run defense is.
The Eagles might need to rely on Barkley because the passing game could struggle. We mentioned the Chiefs are one of the more successful blitzing defenses in the league, which could impact Jalen Hurts.
Hurts has struggled this season when facing the blitz, as his six turnover-worthy throws were the third-most and he was 20th in yards per attempt when pressured (7.3, minimum of 600 pass attempts). That ability to take off when he does feel the pressure is what the Chiefs will need to keep an eye on, as his 43 scrambles were the eighth-most this season.
What will significantly help the Eagles is their defense. They were one of the best this season, ranking first in total yards allowed (278.4) and passing yards allowed (174.2), second in points allowed per game (17.8) and third in defensive EPA per play. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is an excellent defensive mind who will play two-high safeties to try and take away the big plays, but Mahomes has figured out this scheme because he is a career 8-0 against Fangio.
One important stat that could be a factor is how dominant the Eagles were with ball control. They led this year with a time possession of 32:22. This has much to do with their leaning on the run. Their best chance will be if they can control the clock and take possession from the Chiefs.
Super Bowl LIX Prediction
This Eagles team is probably better than the last one that faced the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Like the last time, they should keep it close, but it's difficult to go against a team that has made the Super Bowl a yearly routine.
If there's someone you can trust to find a way to contain Barkley, it's Spagnuolo. If the Chiefs keep Philly one-dimensional, they'll be able to do enough to beat this Philly defense. You could say if it were only a few games that would be a coincidence, but Fangio being 0-8 against Mahomes is a stat you can't ignore.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Eagles 20
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