Chiefs vs. Raiders: NFL Week 18 Same Game Parlays Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
On Saturday, we’ll get two NFL games with major AFC Playoff implications. In the afternoon, the Chiefs head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. A Chiefs victory will lock them in as the top seed in the AFC.
Directly afterward, the Titans and Jaguars will play a de facto AFC South championship game in Jacksonville. The winner will earn the 4 seed in the AFC Playoffs. The loser will likely be eliminated from contention.
Both games should be entertaining with plenty of star players and interesting betting markets offered. Let’s take a closer look at Chiefs vs. Raiders.
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Chiefs vs. Raiders: NFL Week 18 Same Game Parlays Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
Chiefs at Raiders
Leg 1: Raiders +9.5 (-110)
Last week’s OT loss to San Francisco officially eliminated the Raiders from playoff contention. Even so, I think they’ll bring their A game against their biggest rival. Las Vegas is starting QB Jarrett Stidham for the second straight week. Stidham is presumably auditioning for a starting role next year.
Stidham surprised most last week when he lit up the 49ers’ defense for 365 yards and 3 TDs. Between Stidham’s – and other Raiders’ – attempts to cement a role on next year’s squad and the opportunity to play spoiler for a division rival, I don’t think the Raiders will be looking ahead to their offseason vacations on Saturday.
Las Vegas has also had Kansas City’s number recently – they lost by just one point in a 30-29 thriller in KC earlier this year. The Chiefs are probably the best team in the AFC right now, but, despite winning their last four games, they’re just 1-3 against the spread. They failed to cover twice against the Broncos and needed OT to beat the Texans – clearly inferior competition.
Even if the Raiders don’t pull off the upset, I think Stidham will have them in a spot to cover.
Leg 2: Patrick Mahomes 320+ Passing Yards (-130)
Over the past few years, Mahomes has torched the Raiders. Over his last five games against Las Vegas, he’s averaged 329 passing yards and 3 passing TDs per game. He’s also played well lately, averaging 310 passing yards per game over the Chiefs’ last four games despite the team’s relative struggles against inferior competition.
Las Vegas, on the other hand, has struggled to contain opposing QBs. They’ve allowed the opposition to throw for at least 285 yards in three of their past six games. On the year, they allow 257 passing yards per game to opposing QBs – the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
If the Raiders are able to keep this close and game flow forces the Chiefs to stay aggressive, I think Mahomes will put up a big stat line on Saturday.
Parlay Odds: +225
Titans at Jaguars
Leg 1: Jaguars Team Total O26.5 Points (+130)
In recent weeks, the Titans have been a complete mess. They’ve cycled through QBs, struggled to score points, and have lost six games in a row. Despite this, their defense has played well at times. They held the Bengals to 20 points, the Chargers to 17, and the Cowboys to 27 (not an impressive number, but given the way the Cowboys dominated game flow it could have been worse).
The last team to really torch the Titans was Jacksonville, hanging 36 points and 430 total yards in a 36-22 win in Week 14. Trevor Lawrence exploded for 368 yards and 3 TDs in the win, leading the way for the Jaguars’ offense. Tennessee’s league-worst passing defense was no match for the Jaguars’ diverse passing attack.
I expect a similar result on Saturday, as the Jaguars’ offense should be able to roll Tennessee’s defense once again.
Leg 2: Trevor Lawrence 280+ Passing Yards (+140)
This goes hand-in-hand with the Jaguars team total, but the price on this combination doesn’t sufficiently account for the fact that these two outcomes are highly correlated. If the Jags don’t break 27 points on Sunday, it’s because the Titans found a way to stop Lawrence. If they go over 27 points, it’s likely because Lawrence was able to follow a similar game plan in the last meeting between these two teams and light up the Titans’ defense.
Lawrence hasn’t reached this threshold in the Jaguars’ last two games, as they built a big lead early enough that he didn’t need to throw. In his prior two games, he went well over 300 yards. Given the Titans’ struggles stopping opposing QBs, as well as Lawrence’s proven ability to beat them with his arm, I love these two highly correlated plays.
Parlay Odds: +330
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