Cincinnati Bengals NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, & Best Bet (2022)

by Ryan Rodeman |
Aug 14, 2022

The summer is here, and the start of the NFL season will be here before we know it. Now is the time to start digging into NFL futures, both team futures and player futures. NFL futures can be great ways to profit during the upcoming season. We'll have you covered throughout the offseason with updated news and odds for all futures and Week 1 odds. Let's look at updated 2022 NFL team win totals and futures odds.

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Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl Odds

The Cincinnati Bengals come into the 2022 season with high expectations after falling to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI. With rising star Joe Burrow behind center, a cavalcade of talented young receivers at his disposal, and a revamped offensive line assigned with protecting him, it's easy to see why the public is high on the Bengals. You can find their Super Bowl LVII odds at +2200 at many books. The Bengals were just one drive short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy last February, and that impression is still fresh on bettors' minds. This could make +2200 an enticing number to consider.

When we dive into the numbers, they indicate there isn't as much value on these odds as there seems on the surface. The Bengals finished 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, right around the middle of the pack. Their Pythagorean win expectation came in just a notch ahead of their actual 10-7 record with 10.6 wins. This indicates the Bengals were much closer to the team that needed until Week 17 to clinch a banged-up AFC North than they were to the team that won in thrilling fashion three weeks in a row to secure an AFC Championship.

The Bengals proved they can beat anyone in the league last year, but the inconsistency leads to high variance on how far they could go. This is a team that looked like real contenders in games against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Steelers while struggling against bottom feeders like the Bears, Jets, and Jaguars. Unless they can prove something is different this time around, I think we saw the absolute ceiling during their playoff run last year. At +2200, the Bengalsâ€™ Super Bowl odds are a stay-away for me.

Cincinnati Bengals Conference Championship Odds

In order to cash in AFC Champion tickets, the Bengals will have to buck the trend of Super Bowl runners-up. NFL football is a high-variance game with close scores and variable injury luck. It is tough to repeat success even for the best teams in the league. Only eight runners-up have gone back to win their conference title the following year. The 2018 Patriots are the only team to have done it in the last 28 seasons.

Currently, you can find the Bengals to repeat as AFC Champions priced at +1200 at some books. Like their Super Bowl odds, they sit behind some of the favorites, such as the Bills, Chiefs, and Chargers. Last year, the AFC title odds for Cincinnati did not get shorter than +1200 until they clinched the AFC North after Week 17. The variance of this team will be high, and this number will fluctuate from week to week. If they can prove to be more consistent and take care of business during the regular season, this may be a market to monitor. Given the current odds, this is a stay-away for me at the moment.

Cincinnati Bengals Division Winner Odds

The Bengals won the AFC North in 2021 for the first time since 2015, besting three other clubs who had playoff hopes. The AFC North hopes to be just as competitive in the upcoming season. Cincinnati comes in with odds as long as +200 to recapture the crown from their division rivals.

Pittsburgh and Cleveland will come into the year with new signal-callers behind center, but just a few weeks before the season starts, neither seems to really know who it will be yet. Pittsburgh is replacing legendary quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with either Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky. It is tough to see either making a huge difference in improving last year's anemic offense. Cleveland has a lot of upside if Deshaun Watson is able to play in 2022, but the length of his suspension is still up in the air. He is likely to miss time, but it is not yet clear how much.

Baltimore claims the shortest odds to win the division at around +160. Lamar Jackson returns after an injury-riddled end to the season that saw the Ravens squander a division lead, losing the last six games of the year. This offseason, they traded away wide receiver Marquise â€˜Hollywoodâ€™ Brown and made a change at defensive coordinator by bringing in Mike MacDonald from the college ranks. Lamar has a lot of talent to throw to, but much of it is still unproven outside of Mark Andrews.

Cincinnati comes into this race with the least amount of question marks. At +200, the division title odds are a good value, and it is a bet that I would look to make.

Cincinnati Bengals Win Total O/U

The Bengalsâ€™ 2022 win totals have been set between 9.5 and 10, depending on the book. With a Pythagorean win expectancy of 10.6 last year and a total team DVOA of -0.1%, it makes sense that the books would expect this team to have similar regular-season success.

As I've already stated, this is a high-variance team that frankly had some positive injury luck last year. This team is very talented, and it is difficult for me to lean towards an under 10 play. At the same time, the numbers indicate that they were every bit as good as their record last year. With a likely tougher schedule and AFC title hangover this year, the Bengals could find it difficult to go over 9.5. I currently do not lean either way and am staying away from both sides.

Cincinnati Bengals To Make the Playoffs

With a potentially loaded AFC in 2022, there may be some value on the Bengals to miss the playoffs at +125. As I've already said many times, I could see this season going either way for Cincinnati. At +125, we're getting 44.4% implied odds of missing out.

If Cincinnati falls below their Vegas win total, they would likely miss out on the playoffs. With a 17-game schedule and the third wild card team, it's not out of the question for a 10-win team to miss out in this yearâ€™s loaded AFC. Based on this, the odds of them missing the playoffs are much closer to 50% than the betting odds would imply. With the volatility of this team, I'm going to lean towards the Bengals missing the playoffs because of the value in the longer number.

Favorite Cincinnati Bengals Bet

To Miss the Playoffs +125

Matthew Freedmanâ€™s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>

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